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[lastpost] => 2787248 比特币周度预测:BTC跌破9万美元,圣诞行情遥遥无期(转) 1765167421 赚钱小样
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[虚拟币交流]
贝莱德斥资1.25亿美元购买比特币为何令比特币交易员感到不安?(转)
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加密货币市场正面临压力。/ w' ~1 `. {: Z3 }; j
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截至发稿时,比特币 (比特币) 在未能守住 94,000 美元上方后下跌 2.6%,至 89,596 美元左右的低点。与此同时,以太坊 [以太坊] 也出现类似走势,下跌 3.72% 至 3,038 美元。/ e4 ]) c- G+ a: {' Z4 I# a6 \
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此次剧烈回调加剧了散户投资者的恐慌情绪。然而,在恐慌背后,机构巨头们却在增加投资,加倍下注。
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贝莱德存入了比特币和以太坊3 L# s! U8 Z. {; x5 b1 l# l
12月5日,贝莱德已存1.255亿美元BTC以及价值 250 万美元的以太坊到 Coinbase。3 s) w& T) n+ R7 H0 m4 T
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分析师泰德·皮洛斯警告说,这可能预示着机构抛售潮的到来,并可能加剧市场的不稳定性。2 v% W( `, d, [5 V8 u3 U
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他说:
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9 M& b- y3 a2 ~; ?/ G9 S$ ~; z- z“销量还会继续增长吗?”- v4 e' q- \& c. ?4 d6 i
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因此,问题来了:目前的下跌是进一步抛售的信号,还是仅仅是精明的投资者在悄悄地为这轮由 ETF 驱动的周期设定了新的、更高的底线?2 k# G) m) @) f
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此举为何引发担忧?
2 R7 ^# e: S( A% L8 B# m比特币近期价格下跌,未能守住 94,000 美元的关口,这不可避免地将人们的注意力集中在大型机构的动向上,特别是贝莱德数百万美元的比特币存款。ETH到 Coinbase。
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在加密货币市场中,向交易所的大额转账很快就会被视为看跌信号,主要是因为存在清算风险,因为这会增加可出售的供应量。 w; j% `- V0 g n
: }% O1 }; C6 L* ]5 R3 R由于 ETF 资金流出和宏观经济的不确定性已经加剧了市场的紧张情绪,市场对此类波动反应强烈。
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* u& S7 R/ w! F+ j5 ~3 q" B因此,如果机构真的进行清算,新增供应可能会压低价格,过去的一些案例也加剧了这种担忧,这些案例表明,大额存款先于价格调整出现。
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对于散户投资者而言,看到大型基金将资产转移到交易平台通常预示着即将出现问题。
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然而,这种恐慌忽略了一个关键点:管理数十亿美元的 ETF 通常需要进行与即将出售无关的例行转移。
! N! h6 O+ o# c! n+ z+ I/ n1 e$ E; V1 p4 j0 `& t' I2 Y* h4 }6 T
还会有更多销售吗?
# e$ F c" v3 |, n8 |4 A然而,仅凭定金并不能自动转化为后续销售。
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8 ?3 Q- t" ?5 X( w对于像贝莱德这样的 ETF 发行商而言,此类基金变动通常反映了日常运营需求、托管调整、赎回处理、再平衡或其他内部工作流程。
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4 w1 a0 f. V: T) v. F贝莱德依靠 Coinbase Prime 进行机构托管和大宗交易,这体现了一种系统性的策略,而不是恐慌性抛售。: y& b* G% @. i2 j; F
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通常情况下,这种大额转账是 ETF 创建和赎回过程中的常规步骤,旨在保持价格一致。
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$ K3 U* T/ _1 R. D" m+ Y即便如此,技术指标仍然表明短期前景看跌。" K) g, H2 a! a/ {4 K9 e' l
+ \) ~( ` |& C& c截至撰稿时,BTC 的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 和移动平均收敛/发散指标 (MACD) 均低于其中性水平,证实了短期至中期内抛售动能的主导地位。
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来源:Trading View0 D1 D! G# S2 L3 u
$ z) {* L7 e6 I0 c要彻底扭转市场局面,从“熊市主导”转变为“牛市突破”,比特币必须成功突破并守住 98,000 美元的关键阻力位。( ^# K; F% y# A3 J, l- ?8 i6 [8 T
, ^2 i& ]+ F/ b( f; @1 `在此之前,市场技术面依然低迷,容易受到波动影响。* T2 M+ f+ p! I8 d& Z4 q# X
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最后想说的话
$ C. c: _, |3 Q- t4 t零售市场出现恐慌,但机构市场的行为表明,它们对市场波动的反应要审慎得多。
6 I7 F' z( y. L6 s技术指标短期内仍然对空头有利,比特币需要重新夺回 98,000 美元才能真正扭转走势。% U* Z( T, |, E0 H y: V& M
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机构这波操作真够骚的,1.25亿砸下来散户腿都软了, |
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