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博彩公司的主流阵营也有等级之分,笔者的习惯是将立博和威廉希尔视作顶级、韦德退居其次为二级、365和易胜博为三级。此类方法的要点是:首先对顶级公司的赔率倾向性做出分析,然后再结合二级公司韦德的态度,观察韦德更倾向于哪边;最后再将365和易胜博与韦德之间进行对比,观察他们的倾向性。继续以上例说明:5 V3 J9 A7 s4 K0 B3 _/ n" U
立博初赔: 1.50 3.50 6.00 立博终赔:1.53 3.75 6.00
7 I. e5 R# p2 n+ t0 M" J 威廉初赔: 1.50 3.60 5.50 威廉终赔:1.53 3.80 6.50
% k6 a6 y: {9 k5 y; V- V, g) u# p6 G 韦德初赔: 1.53 3.75 6.50 韦德终赔:1.57 3.75 6.50' [4 z$ d7 o6 J$ V, L% r6 W
易胜初赔: 1.55 3.50 5.80 易胜终赔:1.60 3.70 6.20
n9 y5 o4 m1 i 365初赔: 1.57 3.75 6.50 365终赔:1.57 3.75 6.50- H, S* V0 Q Z' @) K- j! o" P
分析:韦德国际在初赔持有观望态度,进入临场阶段,当顶级方面对胜平负作出调整时,韦德在提高主胜赔付方面跟进力度较大,而对平局和客胜则采取不变的应对策略。那么,这个阶段可以做出的小结是:韦德在平局和客胜方面有所考虑。再看三级公司的态度,易胜博和365在初赔阶段主胜高于韦德和顶级公司的赔率水平,其中易胜博把客胜压的最低。
& g1 x8 m1 z" l; {+ J2 p 进入临场阶段时,易胜博对主胜提升的幅度高于所有公司,虽然客胜提升幅度也不小,但是却处于韦德和365之下,而365则始终默认着初始态度不做任何调整。3 ^9 G" v' a' \" k4 X2 {
为了更清晰的了解主流公司间分级对比,下面再举一组案例说明。?0 ~- S- X N3 j+ Z$ z( C3 r
波尔多2-1奥林比亚高斯2 F* a5 X4 T b! ~' p5 O: g' J
时间:2010年3月18日 欧洲冠军杯小组赛- V M$ n( x1 l3 m9 {6 h! k
立博初赔:1.53 3.50 5.50 立博终赔:1.53 3.75 6.504 D# Y9 }( _% X- x6 \, ^2 s
威廉初赔:1.50 3.60 5.50 威廉终赔:1.53 3.80 6.50" w0 S6 T, [3 L+ e+ K
韦德初赔:1.53 3.75 6.50 韦德终赔:1.50 4.00 7.004 P4 O2 W& c- V9 l6 m& l( \% N0 V
365初赔: 1.57 4.00 6.00 365终赔: 1.53 4.00 6.50& v3 ^' Q. g$ y0 l
易胜初赔:1.55 3.50 5.80 易胜终赔:1.53 3.90 7.00?5 [' }+ _: f3 Y% Q# o
分析:在初赔阶段看不出顶级公司之间存在明显分歧,威廉希尔胜赔还略低于立博。二级的韦德初赔阶段即在平赔和客胜方面高出顶级公司很多,初始态度较明朗的否定了平局与客胜。365初期的主胜赔率较高,但是平局和客胜也处于较高水平。易胜博平局数值最低,似乎对主队能否具备绝对优势抱有顾虑。7 U1 E2 e1 C6 {& x
临场阶段,只有威廉希尔一家调高胜赔,而此举并未得到其他公司认可。韦德等主胜一致向立博的水位靠拢,根据立博在胜负方面的权威性来判断,在客胜和平局均被调高的前提下,博彩公司看好主胜的倾向性基本可以成立。而最终主队2-1小胜也验证了易胜博对双方实力定位的正确性。
7 _ ~, B( s7 H6 ~/ x* d7 _ 针对该方法,经过大量赛前分析和赛后复盘,总结出了如下几种对比定义: Y9 `, A9 q* ]- Z- V# i
主流公司的赔率只是制定了赛事的赔付标准,并不能作为庄家的共识来看待。
7 p' R6 R+ _8 V 各级逐次对比,找出更在乎局部利益的小公司的倾向性,可以形成赔率倾向的基本结论。" X; K4 M. o2 \
立博如在某项得到威廉希尔的共识,注意这种共识一定要是动态的,如立博临场降低胜赔,威廉希尔也随之调整甚至动作大于立博,则该项打出的可能性很大。, O; R3 M% z$ s6 Q2 `
韦德国际初赔阶段与顶级公司的对比很重要,该公司往往在初始阶段即从赔率上有所倾向。韦德公司临场阶段对两家顶级公司的倾向性也很关键,其支持力度较大的一方打出的可能性较大。( L$ U; }9 M. d$ h& w) P$ K4 A
365和易胜博与顶级公司和韦德的对比应是交错的,即首先要观察这两家公司与威廉、立博之间的对比关系,然后再去与韦德对比,终究该两家公司目前在实力和影响力上并不逊色于韦德。
" |5 s& ^( N7 L9 ` 小公司的盘子都较小,最担心的既是受到市场挤兑。因此他们的赔率水位往往比较保守,一旦出现冒进或者超越主流公司时,则该结果的实现并非是他们所担心的。4 F1 Y! R# x _# d" Q% x
自韦德开始的各家公司,临场出现变化的一项如不高于威廉或立博的初赔水平,则要注意该项结果打出的可能性很大。 |
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