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[lastpost] => 2686180 美联储11月降息25BP的概率为93% 1729721820 比推快讯
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鲍威尔此前六次杰克逊霍尔年会发言回顾
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比推消息，自 2018 年开始担任美联储主席以来，鲍威尔已经在杰克逊霍尔发表了六次重要讲话。以下是他以往讲话的关键信息，以及对利率较为敏感的 2 年期美债收益率和投行预期的影响：
2018 年 8 月 24 日，讲话后 2 年期美债收益率-1Bp。主张逐步加息作为折中，市场将逐步理解为每季度一次;表达了对 r*(中性利率) 和 u*(中性失业率) 预测值的怀疑;指出过热风险包括金融过度扩张，而不仅是高通胀。
2019 年 8 月 23 日，讲话后 2 年期美债收益率-4Bp。主张进一步降息，以应对一系列下行风险，并暗示市场已经将降息纳入定价，以保持金融条件的宽松。随后高盛提高了进一步降息的预期。
2020 年 8 月 27 日，讲话后 2 年期美债收益率+0.4Bp。宣布采用灵活的平均通胀目标，结束了对货币政策框架的评估。这是一个重要的长期宽松转变，但与预期基本一致。高盛将对前瞻性指引和资产购买计划变更的预期时间点提前了一次会议。
2021 年 8 月 27 日，讲话后 2 年期美债收益率-2Bp。在承认近期就业数据强劲的同时，也指出了新冠德尔塔变异株带来的下行风险;强化了即将宣布缩减购债的预期。
2022 年 8 月 26 日，讲话后 2 年期美债收益率+4Bp。重申在某个时点放缓加息步伐是合适的，但同时表示政策可能需要在相当长一段时间保持紧缩，以控制通胀，并表示额外的 75 个基点可能是合适的，但将取决于数据。
2023 年 8 月 25 日，讲话后 2 年期美债收益率+4Bp。表示在决定未来会议是否加息时，美联储将谨慎行事这表明下一次会议或本周期内不会再加息；做出了更为鹰派的风险评估，并指出美联储注意到经济可能不像预期那样在冷却。
风险提示： 本新闻涉及的内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。依据发布的信息以及所表达的意见行事所造成的一切后果由行事者自负。文章链接 |
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