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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘
3 n& H3 ^; E% X* o     
. z2 j$ r4 @" {- b/ x6 x1 f- e: f1 I     初盘高水,豪门要防冷
, c  L0 o$ N% E. Q: s* w       - o  ~* Z' A' K
     3 r$ j  |) A7 n/ P  S- u
     09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:
/ R8 {& a. _4 r5 Y8 f9 r% b     英超主队3 W# z& L  O+ L2 h, _% N
     胜:11场 79%
# e8 a- R& W# B4 ?     平:2场 14%
" ]. n+ t) ^3 |# ^) ?$ N1 E     负:1场 7%
+ V4 D  R3 a: l1 U     
% y2 H8 Q% c6 [     通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。
& n- [5 _, z! B( m3 o     
; ~/ W. J7 E- J* d8 ~' m     一、初盘阶段5 V" G# b+ Z# T0 d* F: A
     
* c* p4 z  X/ d1 V4 Y     具体到水位如下:
* f- v2 ~# U2 z4 u! [9 ~; F     初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜
6 C; N" R8 o6 |( e/ E% Z     初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平; i4 E# `8 B( L2 U
     初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平
3 S& q. p8 g$ i2 r7 c     
, a) ]4 ~' Q! p7 y& ?( j' {- N) T     分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:: N" k% E1 {0 m- G2 G
     
3 m$ y5 z$ o; B" d5 p9 R     维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00
6 Z: ]$ y  U4 b6 j8 H" X! m# i8 V. u/ G     热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02
4 l5 K9 b* \4 b. g4 R     热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00* `& x0 Q! g% R: V: S( g/ W; C
     
4 `, {# I& g* w1 f4 R: ^     初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。
5 V9 Q6 _8 @; R) @" V     初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。7 P; }2 K- |( _9 h; ]7 @& ]- b, j1 Z
     : o* Y3 B: L  G! `5 J
     二、临场阶段0 c2 f+ C! {3 F* M) X- |1 l
     
: }( w, I/ v1 F! q  p     具体到盘口如下:! z+ {5 P6 n% m# t0 z* T
     临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜; U* H5 x' f4 N
     临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平
" Q8 Q$ {1 x% r7 R4 B     分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:
$ l1 n) L0 @& R) Z( ]     ; U, @3 `  ]: I  N+ Q
     热刺VS伯恩利
' ]& ^. ~/ g9 j0 A: l2 A     初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00
2 R$ t, R9 H+ V2 N     终盘:0.77球半1.09
9 Y* X0 F2 g2 y& @/ _. o- d     
- w0 X- B5 H2 q: d! R% y6 c1 _( `8 I4 S6 \0 `     临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。  H# t3 K) T$ n4 w' e# W
     
0 r) i6 [  |8 F( H- B     三、球队表现+ C# g% j' l6 q* C+ W1 z
     
/ n, k3 q# W* K% E     在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。
" f5 i" `2 i# f$ ?  q0 V5 L" L     + g1 w! C5 I$ @# U- @
     四、投注要点; f+ U) A: B& }5 d
     ' _; R+ J6 t9 O9 s" u7 P
     要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证
* B+ _( Z; w3 c- T     要点2:初盘中水,重点防平  p  H" N1 w( Z0 ^. i& `, ^
     要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能
' \  C, y& u# @* R: M4 C     要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31
$ Z" W7 W0 o" W! [3 r7 g, ^     要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低
; ?2 S. A* B+ @6 P* y! O) \3 `4 @     要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任
& h+ |- Y- u4 d# n6 U+ c5 P" v     要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视
" `+ R* }, W( u8 I     
# H- y+ o6 U1 e3 J% V; u8 A     对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法; q* h% L9 \1 L8 F- Q2 z
     对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方  [0 T) f; d% o6 a" M
     面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。
  n4 e/ s9 _' b           
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:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake:
未有绑定记录
 


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