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最近加密市场的复苏严重偏向比特币，目前占市场的 47%。BTC在昨天上涨超过6%，重回 31,000 美元的水平。导致很多人都以为牛市回来了，但是我一直在提醒大家只是反弹不是反转，不要轻易去追高，市场在慢慢修复，不会有很快速的反弹，所以也导致了大饼一个多月内一直保持在30,000 美元左右。目前大饼市值为 5992 亿美元，而全球加密货币的市值为1.29万亿美元。{更多资讯可以微薄团团财经详细了解}
]9 S4 I P6 S+ }8 }" l
6 Q0 S V3 i5 Q' f, C尽管BTC在一定程度上站稳了脚跟，但除以太坊外，大多数其他山寨币的价值都出现了大幅下跌。再加上最近的 Terra 崩盘，已将BTC的主导地位推至 2021年7月的最后水平。BTC 的这种主导地位可能表明强劲的反弹即将到来。
1 b1 X6 ^& T* C回顾以往的牛市，哪一轮不是因为比特币拉起来的？只有当比特币占据主导地位的时候才是牛市真正回来的时候，也就是占额50%以上。虽说有时候的牛市是因为其他版块的推动，但是大饼不动其他的也只是昙花一现。去年的AXS掀起的链游狂潮，NFT的热浪风波，都没有推动牛市的到来。包括今年红极一时的GMT、炒作万般的WEB3都没有带动牛市的回归。 5 p; q3 F+ {4 ?' \. x8 Q* Z
# X6 E6 C7 X7 K$ ^. j高比特币主导地位先于山寨币反弹, z# o# N" P1 {+ w
正如 7 月所见，BTC 的高主导地位通常发生在强劲反弹之前。这在 2021 年 10 月可以清楚地观察到，在 BTC 的主导地位达到约 47% 之后，市场飙升至历史新高。 / B" Q4 }. O: V! g5 f4 m4 F
, I1 X9 r& g# ~2 a4 ~BTC 的高主导地位通常表明山寨币市场被低估，吸引投资者进入该领域。然后，购买往往也会蔓延到 BTC，从而全面推高估值。
' k& l- _1 W; O; M( Y( f但目前的宏观经济情景与 2021年不同。美联储已开始减少市场流动性，这是过去两年加密货币强劲反弹的关键因素，而流动性减少可能会阻止价格的上涨。 + o/ \8 G0 x8 G9 _$ o; |9 F
尽管最近疲软，但大多数顶级山寨币都跟随了 BTC 的最新复苏。这也是牛市中的一个大的陷阱，让人们误认为牛市回来了。但是大饼一个多月以来一直难以突破 32,000，所以一旦下跌也会导致更广泛的损失。
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8 _% b# c: h) I4 g" u+ Y4 [4 A7 s虽然我看好这个市场，但是我也一直在和大家强调不要盲目去进场 3 T! p: @, |, [3 x, B2 B
不要轻易抄底
( c+ v" @- E. q- I0 u. F0 r ~% h+ y目前，美通胀很严重，美联储加息是美股最危险的时候，有可能大菜还在后头。抄底，建议慢慢抄，分批次分仓位的进场，这也是我一直让大家使用的方法，千万不要上自己不能承受的杠杆或者去满仓梭哈。 2 s* @8 i; ^( {9 B
控制现金流，避免高风险投资 ! z: | [& [3 q! Z9 q. [
在全球股市不稳定+新冠疫情的双重打击下，别想着做高风险投资，在这个节骨眼上，只要不亏，就是赚！万事求稳，手里有点现金流才不会坐吃山空。也是为了当真正的机会出现的时候自己能有资本去抓住。 / U U* ?3 r1 g/ K2 G# U4 k
盲目地“投资”并不是现金的好归宿，当我们没有发现好的投资标的时，现金反而是最好的留存物。 . ~* F4 b/ d& a8 N6 \2 C5 ~2 N
今天的分享就到这里，后期工种号团子财经会给大家带来其他赛道的龙头项目分析。感兴趣的可以点个关注。我也会不定期整理一些前沿咨询和项目点评，欢迎各位志同道合的币圈人一起来探索。 来源：金色财经 |
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