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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘4 D L6 i: j& t, O3 d4 J) w1 n
$ s" y" D% J" }- ~9 O4 W( r 初盘高水,豪门要防冷. K9 y) C$ E. U3 Z& s
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# V7 d8 U" _ F. ?& i' U0 m 09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:
$ H. S$ L" f6 ^+ t 英超主队
" v$ y# G$ `. J& C1 @3 I1 s o 胜:11场 79%
, P) |- ^. Z1 L8 J, p5 g6 W2 ] 平:2场 14%- G9 ?0 M; ?7 X* a2 V& L
负:1场 7%- e( a3 B$ e5 ^; ~
" V* D( P2 V# |% P 通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。0 S, H; X5 q& o# T0 T: C
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一、初盘阶段
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" N1 o+ k+ f% I, p 具体到水位如下:
( w" k+ ?! d5 C" p9 b4 \7 x 初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜6 a- X: Y* s7 V8 [: m8 J0 \: R& H
初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平
/ H# Z4 s) K# g; v4 A" E5 P 初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平 ?$ _% F( M5 g8 A3 M
5 D: K5 V! v) D9 o9 U# i/ |& x2 K
分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:
7 U+ L! C" F$ N. f 0 |% E8 P3 W$ S" z+ ^
维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00
8 H$ i; s; Q5 x; [- t I 热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02
6 b8 K. I; j- P W! t 热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00
o# l- Z8 ]* W6 i
/ p$ G+ J; M8 w& Z6 ^7 H- V 初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。
6 s% I- D+ h( h# w+ U3 x* J" v. e 初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。' T+ _$ }- t& N1 ^, U$ q" \- F
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二、临场阶段
. n% I5 w8 b, F+ \2 N2 F0 F: Z7 F 2 |" \7 V: w7 C+ D1 a( `1 s8 n: `
具体到盘口如下:
9 |5 ?' ~ q9 E1 X6 b5 q8 j 临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜
o# {- g L) t/ E- P 临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平
, `$ r4 v" {/ D3 u 分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:6 c3 y6 B' [( z f: V
% X' a' C8 Z! Y 热刺VS伯恩利: U/ ]9 I* B2 H( K- M" p
初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00( x& v% f5 Q3 J' L- D- J
终盘:0.77球半1.09
+ Z) K4 _& E: b$ r- c 6 _/ j5 g" G8 z1 ^; L
临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。9 K3 D% o, ~$ j1 N
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三、球队表现2 S+ _1 ?' N/ r9 l( w
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在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。
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四、投注要点
% ]5 u( W! ~: m& ` $ E6 c" T, x) c- N5 j, f+ V, t5 F
要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证) |& ^) ?" t( @3 h
要点2:初盘中水,重点防平
: q" x: t) [8 f( f& C4 B0 m" K6 ~% a 要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能& U7 ~( s& Z. d: B% T: n) \5 \7 @4 A
要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31
2 Z* J2 X6 e( n8 e- G( ?. K6 \ 要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低
7 w. O: ]& c' o( ? 要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任
$ F3 C2 r( w+ n' T* H4 B 要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视8 K5 P2 D) }5 X$ p
: z5 `) C. K. W" ~" n
对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法
2 d0 G( t" w$ ` 对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方
0 r" m1 |# t% U 面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。
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