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[lastpost] => 2781939 数据：比特币在本周期中第四次出现“死亡交叉”，之后一年上涨概率为 50% 1763307127 比推快讯
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Bitunix 分析师：特朗普施压美联储，美国经济或将陷入滞胀循环
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比推消息，美国货币体系正面临新一轮政治冲击。特朗普与美联储的对立已从口水战升级至实质夺权，他试图罢免理事库克、安插经济顾问米兰进入 FOMC，意图打造支持大幅降息的超级多数派。多名经济学家以模型推演指出，若货币政策遭政治掌控，美国将先出现增长与低失业的短暂繁荣，之后则面临通胀重新加速、名义利率走高与经济增速下滑的结构性后果，1970 年代的滞胀风险将再度浮现。分析还指出，政客主导利率决策往往与选举周期紧密绑定，短期刺激虽能创造表面繁荣，但代价是通胀失控与后续深度调整。特朗普若成功在 2026 年前重塑理事会，美联储独立性恐遭侵蚀，而美元储备地位与长端借贷成本也可能被市场重新定价。
Bitunix 分析师观点：从史例到当前手法，特朗普策略明确指向对利率路径的直接干预，其后果将不是短期波动，而是制度层级的信用折价。若美联储在通胀尚未受控前被迫大幅转鸽，美国经济将进入先繁荣、后滞胀的典型循环。对全球资本而言，真正的风险并非特朗普本人，而是美国货币政策失去最后的防线。
风险提示： 本新闻涉及的内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。依据发布的信息以及所表达的意见行事所造成的一切后果由行事者自负。文章链接 |
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