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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑( a8 v: j/ t* f2 @9 r8 ?
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凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k7 T* E! N4 ^( s
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G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
( {, u( c* y) L! _什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
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1 ^! x) \: \: |& a( W% m0 |既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
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做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `7 r( F3 |1 k$ z
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(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
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5 N# Q- Z0 G0 \( R(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
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(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t3 o. Q8 S* {- X; g" r9 K
1 V0 I! T* n# [1 k$ G(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
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我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 1 y }# f1 `$ I" ]& f2 E
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S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 ( H6 l( m* J; `! ]5 D' I& U
7 d3 m2 A1 S- q+ mS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 + v! R6 k/ ^8 S. _
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5 O+ d3 a. {# uS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 . C. k) C' o0 a0 Z! T
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S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
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1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
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1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l" E6 Q- o; [2 A! O. w) y/ y; S V% L
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1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
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1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 Q( C% ?% O* W @, \
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S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T2 ]3 P6 b2 _/ L7 s1 ]& }
1 a) c0 P2 S( T% K3 k g类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
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& P9 v+ {; Y9 w. ZS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; . C$ E- p* a( @( V; n
$ H' f: G( F. b) c: v/ I2 YS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s4 s2 o( W3 n/ Q$ Y
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S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
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S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
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(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o+ L8 L6 k1 ?0 b, W$ s1 \3 m
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好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
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- G, O' C0 j4 `( E% x5 P$ P, uB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
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8 E/ D4 ]" f" N! jF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
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- V; `! R3 U. z: r+ {* o于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
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4 k( e4 ?7 v w( d# V6 \3 `G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
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G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 ; Q& z2 z6 f# _3 J
7 R& J! f4 e! p7 ?' s7 R9 aG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
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当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
+ z/ ^1 T1 X! p7 a9 Z" W6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i+ T2 R8 I4 d) }' G2 ]
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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