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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘
/ Y Z9 q6 U/ ?
9 e4 j: E7 L# V/ r3 o3 |" L 初盘高水,豪门要防冷+ p8 ~, T5 [! s0 v
4 p6 z: a7 X3 v# ~# ]. [1 @4 p
5 C: i0 p* o/ c* N$ q1 i 09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:9 D* E8 `, Y4 f& W6 `1 E9 K
英超主队
g2 J5 ]6 z" e9 y i% m: M( I 胜:11场 79%
$ a) v# B5 L6 [5 J& j& e7 Q; n 平:2场 14%/ M) t# t0 @7 D
负:1场 7%' {" g" u4 X. ?4 t+ h% C; |% g
0 G# i1 N; k/ x
通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。
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一、初盘阶段: m4 g2 ` _8 p$ b- [$ `& A$ b
! N1 ~8 \2 x4 x 具体到水位如下:# `9 ~& m# T- V
初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜
n, f- B) E% g3 j( D' ~ 初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平 L! y2 }4 l2 P) A
初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平
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分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:
& d. C' F" X" U! y8 } ! t, y; H9 D( v9 ~
维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00* c" v. K; b! `2 J
热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02: a# T9 X) H0 p8 u# t) G) n4 z
热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00
* a( f9 U2 L' y {5 v % x# W7 Z" c8 O( C& H9 ~& t) V
初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。& r4 E+ L# [) z: U4 B
初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。# Y! r4 ~; j3 {3 g' ^
3 w2 d j" X% b' j) E 二、临场阶段
6 e+ K- Z4 H4 c
: E% F6 Q! N5 G. T0 ~! k 具体到盘口如下:
" O$ y5 [- |, p: P3 @7 b1 {5 ` 临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜
5 x: x8 k& T, o8 L: } 临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平
/ [6 \8 k; L1 A6 K 分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:
/ m% ] q! ? O4 H% [) B# d: s / M1 Y: ?; E3 u
热刺VS伯恩利9 l8 u+ G2 J* @1 I- r4 y$ X2 J
初盘:0.86一球/球半1.007 {; P3 |' _. I) q+ u, t& S4 E( N
终盘:0.77球半1.09
5 d7 \3 V4 Q1 n
; a6 ~# X) U) q8 p 临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。
. o0 d1 O5 @$ l! ]; d. C ; ?5 `* ^$ |# Z" s$ J1 r( M
三、球队表现. |" B) c4 N1 Y; `
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在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。: X* B3 e3 B! p" B C5 A
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四、投注要点% u7 k( e" U! G, O
: {3 k$ ^9 g6 |" U! Z7 D: c 要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证
* {; Q1 I# ?9 L+ j' b4 N 要点2:初盘中水,重点防平
, `) U7 B% m7 \3 p6 t 要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能
9 ?2 c. y2 c' v 要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31
& P- h! Q- |1 R) T: R, K# J( E 要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低
1 p# n4 Y+ m! ~2 a% w' E/ R 要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任
6 w7 r/ u6 D Q3 |& r* B/ n8 [ 要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视
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对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法
7 g" v3 f0 X" E5 ^# l 对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方5 L j) ]) O4 s
面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。) B) z! l; w/ u: W6 W- v' r# X
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