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区块链发展至现在，蓝筹和成长，这两种截然不同的投资取向引发了投资情绪的缠斗轨迹，当这种此消彼长的混沌态势随着年终的临近达至高潮时，加密市场也因它们的对决而变得更加扑朔迷离。 0 G3 h& D& M3 a0 L6 @: b6 U$ t1 R
比特币基金会主席布洛克·皮尔斯沮丧地将加密货币的崩溃与21世纪的互联网泡沫联系在了一起，许多科技公司在那一场浩劫当中灰飞烟灭，一些传统的科技巨头也元气大伤，不得不将位置让给新晋的竞争者们，比如现在的eBay、PayPal和亚马逊。显然比特币的投资者们仍然不甘心，但是现实已经给了他们沉重的一击。 ! c2 Z7 ?1 g5 T# [( `# J4 k
资产价格急剧上涨，投资者变富，对市场泡沫批判会变成 FOMO 的武器，而当泡沫破裂价格下跌时，各种看法接踵而至；之前唱空者的看法得到验证，众多亲历者也有更多时间讲自己的故事。
* a3 u: |, ^3 M. v- w3 M7 ]
$ o- s1 c, r( ?1 y& f
加密货币可以赚大钱，但就连亿万富翁投资者也很容易上当受骗
- R; ^' c3 h& c不可能弄清楚加密货币及其不断变化的格局
: v" F. l8 S9 p/ f2 c2 y, _* W8 P: A% B加密货币几乎还没有可靠的价值衡量标准，以至于加密货币的泡沫是不是即将破灭都很难判断
7 b: F: V, N1 d即便泡沫通常是贬义，但有时候一定程度的泡沫会对世界带来正面影响。就好比一杯啤酒都是泡沫，那还叫啤酒吗？但是完全没有泡沫的啤酒，能是新鲜的啤酒吗？所以说，市场需要适量的泡沫，需要这些泡沫的润滑作用，小泡沫的成长对市场发展起到推动作用，大泡沫的破灭对市场发展起到一个警示的作用，泡沫至始至终都会存在的，既然近期市场在努力挤干净泡沫，我认为小的泡沫其实已经在孕育之中了。 $ O6 h J0 h. [7 U8 l
这也有助于解释为什么项目需要很长时间，好处不仅是可以获得有效回馈，也避免无效回馈。 ; u) A, x3 c/ `- M# a) v0 P
泡沫带来的反应8 c( D# X" F2 p: e
泡沫也有可能带来直接好处，或至少带来正面溢出效应：二十世纪九十年代的电信泡沫产生廉价光纤，当世界准备好迎接 YouTube，光纤就发挥了作用。即使房地产泡沫也有积极作用：带来住房库存。由于新房产非常标准化，可用很好以「iBuying」算法数据训练 — 低科技的泡沫造成高科技结果的稀有案例。但即便如此，大家对价格总是有个疑问：怎么识别何时市场过热？ / p# q1 W5 G/ Q& ^1 _4 m
对泡沫估值争论通常总结为框架问题。具体来说就是大概两种形式：
0 y1 X3 r' ]- D$ }9 M3 G趋势可以持续多久的问题：如果一个趋势转瞬即逝，{就像去年满天飞的链游}那么当前增长就只是暴跌前的一次起伏。电子商务股票 1999 年的走势很好看，Beanie Babies 的也是，需要进行判断才能确定哪些趋势会继续。但由于复合利率的力量，一个趋势只要比看上去持续那么一点点，带来的影响力会超乎寻常。 ( t6 H" U4 ?8 T: b- w9 d" u: s1 l
造福效应和连锁反应的问题：一个版块推出一件成功的产品，是否就意味着下件产品也会成功？去年AXS成功之后，掀起链游狂潮，只要是个玩赚游戏就会有人去玩，但是今年还有几个存活？ 3 m: T2 n) Y9 [5 j9 }: ~
即便泡沫通常是贬义，但有时候一定程度的泡沫会对世界带来正面影响。就好比一杯啤酒都是泡沫，那还叫啤酒吗？但是完全没有泡沫的啤酒，能是新鲜的啤酒吗？所以说，市场需要适量的泡沫，需要这些泡沫的润滑作用，小泡沫的成长对市场发展起到推动作用，大泡沫的破灭对市场发展起到一个警示的作用，泡沫至始至终都会存在的，既然近期市场在努力挤干净泡沫，我认为小的泡沫其实已经在孕育之中了。 / l- v( k4 z+ z, T6 ^$ h/ W6 z* g& {, V* V
今天的分享就到这里，后期工种号团子财经会给大家带来其他赛道的龙头项目分析。感兴趣的可以点个关注。我也会不定期整理一些前沿咨询和项目点评，欢迎各位志同道合的币圈人一起来探索。 来源：金色财经 |
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