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[虚拟币交流]
分析师称“忘记比特币四年周期吧，这个市场与众不同（转）
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加密货币分析师 Michael van de Poppe 表示，当前的市场周期在各个方面都有所不同。 [url=]范德波普[/url]列举了三件事来佐证这一论断。首先，“上涨十月”已然变成了“下跌十月”。上周末，加密货币市场经历了历史性的抛售；10月10日的闪电崩盘，是加密货币历史上规模最大的一次，导致190亿美元的杠杆押注被清算。比特币和其他主要加密货币目前在10月份下跌，而历史上，10月份被认为是市场利好的月份。 我并不担心熊市已经开始。4 d, Y% Q7 E7 g- A& A. ^4 X5 A
3 w$ J8 s$ d3 G% K, R1 F% X事实证明，这个周期在各个方面都是不同的。$ \: L. a) C7 l3 V+ m
, _7 Z6 N& |5 r. M5 J2 c9 @十月上旬，十月下旬。[url=]#山寨币[/url]并没有与之前的周期同时爆发。[url=]#比特币[/url]创下减半前历史新高。6 D4 [2 Y ^+ H5 }7 m" J8 m
Z+ s( p( u8 B! [) |4 年周期并不…… — 迈克尔·范·德·波佩 (@CryptoMichNL)
) o6 E( b9 J; \2 w加密货币分析师认为，第二和第三个原因是，山寨币并没有在与之前的周期“完全”相同的时间爆发，并且比特币在减半之前创下了历史新高。 上一次比特币减半发生在2024年4月20日，当时比特币的区块奖励从6.25个减少到3.125个。比特币在减半事件发生前一个月，即2024年3月创下了73,835美元的新高。比特币目前的历史最高价为126,198美元，于2025年10月6日创下。 忘记四年周期了吗？截至发稿时，[url=]比特币[/url]交易价格为 111,830 美元，较本月创下的历史最高价 126,198 美元下跌 11.53%。 范德波普对熊市即将来临并不感到意外：“我并不担心熊市已经开始。” 比特币价格需要从当前历史高点下跌20%并维持在该水平以下，才能正式进入熊市。鉴于此，范德波普宣布比特币四年周期的终结：“四年周期已不复存在，我认为我们应该彻底否定四年周期的理论。” “我认为这个周期将会更长，我之前提到过，我认为我们现在处于 2019 年第三季度，”范德波普表示，这意味着当前周期可能会持续超过四年，并补充道“这意味着还有 1.5 到 2 年的时间。
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