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赛前分析:[欧国杯]芬兰 vs 荷兰
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北京时间本周三(09月07日)凌晨01点00分，欧洲杯预选赛E组将进行一场比赛，小组第一的荷兰做客对阵已经出线无望的芬兰。
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2 K3 \% s4 l2 y欧赔( G* v4 Z* P1 O, t) \5 p
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澳门：8.50 5.00 1.25
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) Y$ n L& S' A- I% C1 i2 l立博：10.00 5.50 1.28* i X X3 R H. Z1 z. t1 M
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bet365：9.00 5.00 1.33
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除了bet365、易胜博等公司的荷兰胜赔和威廉相差过大外，欧赔看起来还是比较正常的。现在bet365和易胜博荷兰胜赔都是1.33，而威廉只有1.22，两者相差了0.11。这本来就是个不小的差距，本场荷兰胜赔本来就非常低，更放大了这一差距，如果保持这样的赔率到终场，荷兰是有危险的。1 c$ |, d0 V9 _- G* v( v
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澳门：0.98 -1/-1.5 0.846 ?' A9 r+ F; b2 a2 U
# x% ?7 K! e% u, f立博：1.02 -1/-1.5 0.84
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3 b1 S+ `0 {) b {/ Zbet365：1.025 -1/-1.5 0.8251 B+ o" Y! v" d \2 C2 `* ]
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亚盘初盘都是荷兰让球半，而现在都是荷兰让一球/球半，各公司都退了盘。这场荷兰必然是热门，退盘如果上盘保持低水还能理解为是减少上盘赔付，但退盘后上盘还升了水，这就不能理解了。以现在的盘口来看，荷兰最好的情况就是赢球输盘。
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对战记录 f6 H5 @ O( C) d4 `+ A {0 {
5 H8 h/ m5 o3 Y6 Y. C4 y9 m两队在历史上交战过12次，芬兰队1胜2平9负处于绝对下风，进14球失32球；其中两队在欧洲杯预选赛中交战过5场，芬兰队1平4负未有胜绩处于劣势，进4球失12球。首回合交锋，荷兰主场仅2-1小胜。* P3 `) k* m8 c# P2 F2 f& M S! s) I2 r
4 e' _4 N' y/ w) e出线形势
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7 F# n0 y$ j/ y: s荷兰全胜21分遥遥领先，瑞典、匈牙利同积15分瑞典比匈牙利少赛一场，9分的芬兰、6分的摩尔多瓦和0分的圣马力诺是打酱油。5 K5 e+ j( x& [ z
6 @' S3 N& O z( R5 G( x5 O由于瑞典本轮是打圣马力诺3分在握，因为荷兰本轮赢球也还是领先第二名6分，在都还剩下2场的情况下理论上荷兰还没有出线，不过这也只是理论上。匈牙利尽管和瑞典同分，但形势不妙，不仅比瑞典多赛一场且对战胜负处于劣势，这要求他们必须积分超过瑞典才行，还好和荷兰的比赛已经踢完。瑞典剩下的对手是圣马力诺、芬兰和荷兰，匈牙利想要出线，就要期待瑞典在对芬兰、荷兰时都不胜。4 F+ b4 ]6 P) }( H% a
7 ?& R: N0 |! G+ d9 f0 I; f2 m上周末比赛简介
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$ F' h$ P* L+ ?& F5 }" Q/ ?* A荷兰上周末11-0大胜圣马力诺，这场胜利被大加赞赏，但个人认为这不算什么，荷兰大比分赢下圣马力诺，不能说明状态有多好只能说明态度比较认真，要知道同组的瑞典打圣马力诺，在34分钟被罚下一人10打11还是能6-0大胜。圣马力诺和荷兰的差距实在是太大了。5 {3 b/ H, @" y2 X
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芬兰上周末4-1击败摩尔多瓦，哈伊莱宁梅开二度，福赛尔打入点球，对方再送了一个乌龙。芬兰小组赛的9分全都是在圣马力诺和摩尔多瓦两支鱼腩身上取得，碰到其他对手就是输球。: `7 z' Z% s8 t' o" y6 [
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胜负关键
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" I2 H6 @% U: m- N4 q) J对荷兰大部分球员来说，取得小组第一不成问题、且周末还有联赛的情况下，不分点心是不可能的，这在主观上给芬兰制造了一些爆冷的机会。
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从人员上来说，荷兰缺少有伤的罗本、范德法特和德容，并不能以最强阵容出击，上周末对圣马力诺排出的三叉戟是库伊特、亨特拉尔和范佩西，库伊特是另类边锋勤恳有余但灵性不足、亨特拉尔是标准的射手需要队友喂球，而范佩西技术能力出色但踢球风格比较独，这个三叉戟的攻击力对圣马力诺是很强，但并不能用这场来判断，碰到职业化的芬兰，能表现出什么样的水准这就是未知数了。 |
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