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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第2部分 亚洲盘口-第2章 盘口分析要素和程序-[第三节第3点]
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第三节 预判水位及分析方法
" |2 _4 \; N- `- X     三、理论盘型与预判水位结合分析2 P' l$ j) s: P  [* b# z
     前面我们了解了盘型分析与预判水位的概念和基本方法,现将两者结合应用配以实际案例进行分析说明。) C2 ]; J- M; s! r) G" `# ?" q
     例:热那亚4-2锡耶纳
0 b' E& o" ^; k8 R     时间:2009. Y3 R' Y) |! h$ \8 l% ~/ Y
     年11月9日
. ?! s& {; E2 Q1 E+ K     初盘:0.88半球/一球0.98
( y% f( Y& }7 Z. c1 d' c     终盘:0.96半球/一球0.904 |/ d& Y/ g+ w7 M6 {  j
     主胜概率:56.30%9 @% H! U6 f4 {% t5 y
     平局概率:26.70%
0 f5 G4 t( P8 Q% ~2 L9 U" ^     客胜概率:16.99%( f2 U% U( H+ U. J- w0 V, J+ O
     除权后(56.30%÷(26.70%+16.99%))得出主队的让球概率为1.35(换算值)低于1.5(半/一换算值)高于1.00(半球换算值)。那么,它对应的的盘口应为半球超低水或者半球/一球中高水。如果给出半球高水或者半/一低水抑或超高水,则说明本场有造盘的可能,这个将在下面的热度分析中详解。% L9 m% H" V8 M5 g+ q
     例:希洪竞技 0-1 桑坦德
1 v' }2 f+ V: r# Z: m' b     时间:2010年1月25日& ?* |: r. V7 h, z% p( Q6 w+ p
     初盘:1.06平手/半球0.804 G+ i1 X5 z3 @2 Y% u. U/ }6 D
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98% x  a3 b# {. W9 d# x2 j
     主胜概率:41.26%" c: p8 K" N. F" T
     平均概率:28.90%
. E0 U/ p3 {0 a& r* j     客胜概率:29.84%
8 E% h4 x# l. b5 ]5 Z0 B     除权后41.26%÷(28.90%+29.84%)得出主队的让球可能是0.72(换算值),低于1.00(半球换算值)。那么,它的对应的让球盘口应在平/半高水。如果给出平半低水、中水或者超高水,则存在造盘可能。如本案例,主队临场阶段降水到中低水,低于理论盘型的对应水位,最终过热输球。这个涉及到了造热原理,后续部分将有具体讲述。; D; w) X- \( h# F4 j- k
     例:切尔西 4-0马德里竞技
! R7 E1 ^% X% @% d* K% U# t9 I     时间:2009年10月22日
, ]9 n' X7 g  Z3 b4 s9 E/ s# I8 a     初盘:0.88 一球/球半0.98
' y" b  x* i8 M' C4 z     终盘:1.01一球/球半0.85
+ |% [( T0 v1 H+ ^1 ~4 }! _  a, b     主胜概率:68%
  L+ d* w: e0 c% p* g     平局概率:21%) T- i1 K/ {; b: m6 \" V
     客胜概率:11%2 c* f8 E% m6 k: Z. k4 @' b+ r
     除权后68%÷(21%+11%)得出主队让球可能是2.13(换算值),高于2.00(一球的换算值),低于2.5(一球/球半的换算值)。那么,它对应的让球盘应该是一球低水或者一球/球半满水。本例初盘给出一球/球半低水,水位明显低于理论盘折合水位,这个初盘阶段可以理解为看强主队,也可以按照造热上盘处理,终盘阶段上盘升水,由热变冷,最终赢球赢盘。这也是一个造热不成功的典型案例,后面造热分析部分会有详解。
* ~' ]1 P6 c2 H5 y     在此前,本书多处涉及到了“造冷”与“造热”的概念,下面开始将进入盘口分析的另外一个领域 盘口冷热度研究。
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多谢楼主分享!
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学习中。。。谢谢楼主分享
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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新人学习下,谢谢楼主~~
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