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最近加密市场的复苏严重偏向比特币，目前占市场的 47%。BTC在昨天上涨超过6%，重回 31,000 美元的水平。导致很多人都以为牛市回来了，但是我一直在提醒大家只是反弹不是反转，不要轻易去追高，市场在慢慢修复，不会有很快速的反弹，所以也导致了大饼一个多月内一直保持在30,000 美元左右。目前大饼市值为 5992 亿美元，而全球加密货币的市值为1.29万亿美元。{更多资讯可以微薄团团财经详细了解} # C, x( {( D0 [5 A
, p e6 } s+ d0 N& h! X+ `尽管BTC在一定程度上站稳了脚跟，但除以太坊外，大多数其他山寨币的价值都出现了大幅下跌。再加上最近的 Terra 崩盘，已将BTC的主导地位推至 2021年7月的最后水平。BTC 的这种主导地位可能表明强劲的反弹即将到来。 8 \1 y' T# p7 Z/ `' ]
回顾以往的牛市，哪一轮不是因为比特币拉起来的？只有当比特币占据主导地位的时候才是牛市真正回来的时候，也就是占额50%以上。虽说有时候的牛市是因为其他版块的推动，但是大饼不动其他的也只是昙花一现。去年的AXS掀起的链游狂潮，NFT的热浪风波，都没有推动牛市的到来。包括今年红极一时的GMT、炒作万般的WEB3都没有带动牛市的回归。
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# g3 r2 L: J9 E. j' b高比特币主导地位先于山寨币反弹
/ [$ W, Y, R) d) V: V正如 7 月所见，BTC 的高主导地位通常发生在强劲反弹之前。这在 2021 年 10 月可以清楚地观察到，在 BTC 的主导地位达到约 47% 之后，市场飙升至历史新高。
@) |6 x0 D$ |% W
: s1 Q) D% j4 P6 @0 t$ O4 @BTC 的高主导地位通常表明山寨币市场被低估，吸引投资者进入该领域。然后，购买往往也会蔓延到 BTC，从而全面推高估值。 % t; m, E1 T& V7 d
但目前的宏观经济情景与 2021年不同。美联储已开始减少市场流动性，这是过去两年加密货币强劲反弹的关键因素，而流动性减少可能会阻止价格的上涨。 : \6 f/ n6 f- |8 ^ w# r( F6 f( h
尽管最近疲软，但大多数顶级山寨币都跟随了 BTC 的最新复苏。这也是牛市中的一个大的陷阱，让人们误认为牛市回来了。但是大饼一个多月以来一直难以突破 32,000，所以一旦下跌也会导致更广泛的损失。 " o. ]4 F: J' U0 O
文末$ u: i1 b9 H: K4 c# D2 [4 E) U
虽然我看好这个市场，但是我也一直在和大家强调不要盲目去进场
: P/ D% p& p' ? q8 |不要轻易抄底 2 X8 P* m; \. w) ~3 M) Q% G
目前，美通胀很严重，美联储加息是美股最危险的时候，有可能大菜还在后头。抄底，建议慢慢抄，分批次分仓位的进场，这也是我一直让大家使用的方法，千万不要上自己不能承受的杠杆或者去满仓梭哈。 4 k r, B0 g8 q- x0 x7 A
控制现金流，避免高风险投资 ; g, ? z. E$ f& S7 c) ? n$ ^
在全球股市不稳定+新冠疫情的双重打击下，别想着做高风险投资，在这个节骨眼上，只要不亏，就是赚！万事求稳，手里有点现金流才不会坐吃山空。也是为了当真正的机会出现的时候自己能有资本去抓住。 - N& v# m Y4 y7 ~9 O4 \
盲目地“投资”并不是现金的好归宿，当我们没有发现好的投资标的时，现金反而是最好的留存物。
/ V1 U# f6 X F. o今天的分享就到这里，后期工种号团子财经会给大家带来其他赛道的龙头项目分析。感兴趣的可以点个关注。我也会不定期整理一些前沿咨询和项目点评，欢迎各位志同道合的币圈人一起来探索。 来源：金色财经 |
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