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[lastpost] => 2688008 马斯克的特朗普之旅引发模因币狂潮 狗狗币能否超越比特币？（转） 1730414783 hangaibing
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本帖最后由 天策小编-花魁天 于 2021-10-18 12:04 编辑 ; s. b5 S& q/ u( J- y& ?
/ z6 v. s& o( F- ?2 q# R0 e今天看了国内转载的报道，也看了coindesk等主流媒体的文章，没有进一步的消息，基本上是基于周五彭博社的报道。根据目前的信息分析基于CFTC批准的CME比特币合约很可能推出ETF。理论上，cftc批准的比特币合同不需要sec批准，因此存在两个问题。首先，SEC不发表声明是否意味着他们同意，还是他们认为这是CFTC？无论ETF交易有问题，他们都可能发表声明？ 0 v# B" s1 T' e2 w4 E l
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二是基于期货合约的ETF不交易比特币现货，CME合约也不交易比特币现货，都是基于美元。所以很难说对比特币现货市场的影响有多大。综上所述，我觉得目前的情况可能没有预期的那么好。对于大多数投资者来说，基于CFTC合同的ETF和基于现货的之间的差距可能不清楚。假如是基于现货，那就意味着SEC认可了金融产品比特币的合法性。基于CFTC合同的ETF意味着SEC只认可CFTC产品。这完全是两个概念。因此对于大多数投资机构来说，如果他们发行ETF只是基于CFTC衍生品，他们就不需要购买比特币，这对现货市场意义不大。当然，如果你想在这里做得好，至少卖出第一步，就像CFTC推出了ETF合同一样。回到市场，如果大家一开始都预计基于现货的ETF会被批准，那么根据目前的消息，它是空的。即使认为这是利好，也有利于兑现后的出货行为。因此，从昨天的价格来看，我们并没有突破6.5万美元的前高，这也证实了这一点。
$ y! \ A/ L; h# B' n从技术上讲，如果不超过6.5万美元，就意味着有可能形成双头走势，这是需要注意的。与此同时，昨天有报道称，TETHER与CFTC达成了和解协议，前者支付了4100万美元的罚款，这对TETHER来说不是正名费，但目前还没有被CFTC纠缠。但从消极的角度来看，SEC也可以如法炮制，从币安身上获取利益。未来可能会有更多的加密货币，交易员将受到惩罚。各国ZF对加密货币的态度并没有变得更加友好，所以每个投资者都应该保持清醒和理性。如果这个ETF确认了，就意味着更多的监管接踵而至，之后的发展会有很多曲折。 ! e( f% H9 Z$ l- b5 c% i6 g. Q
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