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[虚拟币交流]
比特币与 3 万亿美元美国债务——现在是购买 BTC 的时候了吗？（转）
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雷·达里奥 (Ray Dalio) 警告称，美国债务可能会使与美元挂钩的财富贬值。! g% \$ L4 c2 Z. V; w7 g3 g+ y
加密货币领导者将财政混乱视为 BTC 的看涨催化剂。
/ k/ ?( Q" m9 ~5 w比特币[BTC]随着 7 月 3 日税收和支出法案通过后美国债务问题成为头条新闻，加密货币推特上出现了大量看涨言论。; {2 d5 E. w4 c; \
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根据 估计，预计该法案将在未来10年内增加3万多亿美元。
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* F, `" a t: ~% T但是，对冲基金桥水基金创始人雷·达利奥著名的 如果该法案按原样实施，债务可能会失控。
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他警告说，未来10年内，普通美国家庭的债务负担可能变得难以承受。6 G* a3 B' H* U2 i+ E8 J" U
3 _# C% D5 o6 z" q% d6 P" ]2 O可能的后果是什么？增税、削减ZF支出或增加印钞。这可能会削弱美元的价值，并损害那些依赖美元来保住财富的人。
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7 C( y7 q4 c" a) m5 R他表示，, }2 a6 r1 h0 `. M* ~/ A# N
3 K$ X7 R/ B8 q% D$ |8 q“这种印钞和贬值行为对于那些将债券作为财富储备的人来说并不好，而对债券和美国信贷市场不利的事情对每个人来说都是不利的。”
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* C7 {. f) Y2 m1 j! p7 p- \" u6 uBTC 的完美风暴？, m6 e9 U' j/ w
加密货币领袖声称，这种可能的财政混乱和后果正是比特币存在的原因。5 s' U1 ], `9 \' O
\; ^ N" t' ~2 |% q3 ?作为一种固定供应的数字资产，与美元等传统货币相比，它成为一种相对较好的价值储存手段。* E+ P' W1 c- d' U2 R/ n; x7 m
/ \! m$ D+ R" V) d6 d6 f, U这些货币供应量无限，由各国央行随意印制。简而言之，BTC、黄金和其他稀缺商品的需求量将会很大。
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Bitwise 首席信息官 Matt Hougan 对 Dalio 的警告作出回应 敦促用户“购买比特币”。! U s4 z8 y. w! k* x
, V5 s# J. ]# L) r! n X* [Real Vision 的 Raoul Pal 也赞同 Hougan 的观点，添加在这种贬值情况下，只有技术和加密货币才是更好的对冲工具。
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“在长期牛市中，贬值对冲只有两种表现显著优异：科技和加密货币。”% K0 U8 e( n# [1 u+ |& K) X
3 O- C: F+ ]8 [. J' r尽管达利欧公开表示承认与拥有一些 BTC 相比，他更倾向于黄金。7 \/ Y" B% e, f" D
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他表示，追踪黄金价格走势更容易，尤其是在冲突期间。但他发现追踪比特币价格走势却很难，因此得出结论，比特币仍然是一种投机行为。6 Z) U2 i1 u/ C$ q: e
# {- w: ]5 g1 h然而，对贝莱德的拉里·芬克来说，BTC 是数字黄金。事实上，他警告今年 4 月，如果财政债务得不到管理，人民币很容易取代美元成为世界储备货币。: x# ^5 V* R' e# y( N9 K
+ \% S2 K# P8 z# z q7 j即便如此，财政部长斯科特·贝森特淡化与支出法案相关的债务问题。' n# z9 L' w t5 \" _' g$ @1 H
/ k9 z0 Z% _ M4 e# K- ?“我们的 GDP 增长速度快于债务增长速度，这种趋势将持续到总统剩余的任期。”5 L6 W- B0 c' F0 b9 Z
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与此同时，Coinbase 分析师警告“大美丽法案”将债务上限提高了 5 万亿美元。( G) s+ S0 m0 a3 \ Q
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结果，美国财政部可能会补充（从市场借钱）其主要现金账户或TGA（国库普通账户），并挤压流动性，拖累包括BTC在内的风险资产。0 ^9 _9 A: M2 ?1 B8 X' \
3 M3 a0 m3 I8 x“TGA 的补充可能会在短期内消耗大盘的流动性，对所有风险资产构成明显的下行风险。”
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