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[lastpost] => 2782580 宏观驱动因素、市场情绪转变以及低于 7 万美元的战略入场点（转） 1763515183 jackcool1011
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比特币在本季度早些时候飙升至历史新高后，目前已出现急剧回落，但投资研究巨头伯恩斯坦表示，交易员们对形势的解读是错误的。
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4 @* F9 n* H+ s) ^( V要点总结：
! H( `( c6 s7 z/ f$ Z比特币的下跌被视为周期中期的回调，而不是市场顶部。
9 q6 L2 ?* _' q& A" y9 B, k$ y( q* ~机构需求正在消化长期持有者的抛售。" m2 [! C$ L0 q3 q7 c$ {' D
伯恩斯坦认为，此次调整创造了潜在的重新入场机会，而不是预示着经济衰退。
: }% z' ~9 G/ d! z8 `许多人眼中看似重大趋势逆转的开始，在他们看来，更像是多年扩张期内的一次喘息。
4 z7 f+ N. ?, \2 I2 I5 Y4 m8 }0 r! c
伯恩斯坦并没有将注意力集中在近期自10月份高点以来的回落上，而是指出所有权结构发生了更广泛的变化。比特币今天，机构持仓不仅持续攀升，而且现货ETF的增长也催生了一种新型买家——他们不会在市场出现任何波动迹象时就惊慌失措。挥发性- B# s+ o8 A+ l0 x- I g# c
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该术语指的是加密货币价格在特定时间段内偏离其平均值的程度。6 u7 f+ c4 O$ Y3 O
: }: O; {# f; r& m2 `. _" J“>波动性.& c3 i- o$ e1 M; {6 ^# q4 T" o
为什么抛售压力并未摧毁市场( ]" T" N6 |$ g4 `0 {# l% q
尽管零售情绪变得紧张，但长期持有者手中的股票供应并未引发……流动性
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. \: l% d2 W' h+ j$ x7 v: s能够在不影响价格的情况下，快速将数字货币或代币转换为另一种资产或现金的能力。& s, }8 C7 S* ]" D# K
8 v# s2 D, K2 r3 \+ h1 _3 ]6 m, |流动性真空。过去半年里，持有超过12个月的卖家抛售了数十万枚比特币。在以往的周期中，这会使市场失去安全保障。但这一次，几乎全部的抛售潮都被吸收了。ETF
; L7 r: ?5 w4 y' t5 O交易所交易基金" z6 `3 _( C0 {
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ETF资金流入和企业国库购买。' ~5 a- _) _1 `- y1 d
伯恩斯坦认为，这种动态可以防止像早期周期峰值那样出现连锁崩溃。
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" O5 `0 Z" z, V投资者正在与旧模式的幽灵作斗争) e/ n3 w! f$ \( W. ~. ~8 p
伯恩斯坦表示，引发恐慌的并非新信息，而是似曾相识的感觉。比特币在2013年、2017年和2021年都曾达到峰值，而每一次峰值之后都伴随着残酷的抛售。许多交易员现在确信2025年也必将重蹈覆辙，因此他们提前数月抛售——讽刺的是，这反而让他们所担忧的下跌看起来更加真实。
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8 ]9 N1 | t, Y2 B在伯恩斯坦看来，市场并没有崩盘；它只是对迷信做出了反应。
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) Q- w) z/ {9 m6 G0 G, X战略资产负债表传闻站不住脚
& u1 l, F) D! b/ y0 ]有传言称，Strategy（前身为MicroStrategy）可能被迫抛售其持有的大量比特币，这加剧了人们的焦虑情绪。伯恩斯坦断然否认了这种说法。杠杆作用* R6 j- R# U5 {0 x9 Z7 n
& z) w. p* N# U) G1 H p" ~利用借入资金为投资或项目融资，旨在增加潜在回报的做法。
]% b6 F' ]9 I) O
" }6 o- f1 ^0 _! ]“>杠杆Strategy 的资产负债表与其持有的资产相比规模适中，股息仍然很容易得到保障，管理层继续发出积极积累而不是撤退的信号。/ R* s6 `* {0 o. N
在伯恩斯坦看来，有关强制出售的传言是伪装成分析的恐惧。
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/ i+ K8 H# X* K5 c1 l更宏观的视角：机构仍在陆续到来& A- \" _: v# S9 t: y. z
分析师表示，最重要的指标并非近期的下跌，而是机构持股的持续扩张。比特币ETF目前控制着超过1250亿美元的资产，尽管短期内出现资金流出，但自2024年底以来，机构参与度显著提升。换句话说，如今购买比特币的人群与以往周期中推动市场发展的人群截然不同。6 y1 ]! r3 a2 ?. u
5 B' {& e& ~! ]& u与加密货币相关的股票也呈现出类似的趋势。Coinbase、Robinhood、Figure 和 Circle 等公司均超出季度预期，这表明代币化和稳定币并非投机幻想，而是重要的商业产品。
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/ d/ R; D% K4 V5 s5 g并非高潮——周期中期的停顿+ ~- k. ]# L" F" j( @' N2 U# |
与其将10月份的价格峰值称为……的顶峰牛市
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# y* P- d* n, t7 P J以价格上涨为特征的市场阶段。
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牛市伯恩斯坦认为，近期的下跌只是一次短暂的调整。分析师们正在密切关注市场能否在8万美元附近站稳脚跟——这并非牛市与熊市的分界线，而是下一波资金流入的跳板。7 m% r- \! ^" V
结论：伯恩斯坦认为，目前的形势丝毫没有周期性峰值的迹象，反而像是机构投资者推动的长期趋势中的一次调整。9 ~* O& w3 R8 J- H# k7 E) \. n
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