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[虚拟币交流]
Peter Schiff：比特币现货ETF获准可能对币价产生灾难性影响（4日转）
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尽管市场对美国当局可能批准第一档比特币现货ETF充满期待，知名比特币怀疑论者、
- w, X4 z' q- V9 J8 w: {1 L& J# G提倡拥抱黄金的Peter Schiff警告，比特币狂热人士要小心不要抱持过多期望。/ D. O9 D# {2 j6 M( d3 @
Peter Schiff在社群平台X上贴文表示，比特币现货ETF获准可能对比特币价格产生灾难性影响。他说，关于美国上) Z6 K Q" y& @$ S) p. O h
市推出比特币现货ETF的展望，已经支撑了比特币的价格和投机性需求长达数年。这代表，如果预料中的机构投资7 x R) h$ S! h; [
需求没有来临，就算ETF获得核准上市，比特币价格也会暴跌，「当心冲击！」* o" v* @: \ z0 ~
Peter Schiff长期来一直对比特币持怀疑态度，而且多年来持续预测比特币会灭亡，然而比特币每轮周期的表现都; a/ n3 O4 A9 i
证明他是错的。他的推文收到比特币支持者的大量留言，这些支持人士提醒他，正如黄金ETF并没有减损实体黄金
q2 Y/ A! ]& L; ?的需求一样，如果出现比特币现货ETF，只会为比特币市场增添动能。( y- O8 K4 j2 |4 l9 {
然而，搜集许多数据的顾问业者Matrixport也提醒说，比特币支持人士可能必须再等更久的时间，才能见到首档* |& b8 W' x H! \" N5 l
比特币现货ETF在美国上市。该公司预测，美国证管会(SEC)可能会在1月10日的最终期限否决所有比特币现货ETF4 W' I: ~; l8 L. n
的申请。* k; S; ~" D p; G! H9 ^0 Q
Matrixport的最新预测和许多ETF分析师先前的预测截然相反，一些分析师预期这些申请案有90%的机率会在1月- c( i9 u8 k$ k5 G- s% f
10日的最终期限前闯关成功。不过，Matrixport表示，尽管ETF申请者频繁与SEC的工作人员开会，但「所有申请1 R/ ~, t' ?/ E7 t2 Y" X
案都没有达到能获得SEC核准前必须达到的关键要求。」Matrixport表示，预期在2024年的第2季前，都不会见
. ~+ H( T/ P! w3 k到有任何一档比特币现货ETF获准上市。
; |" i! v: E2 E$ O该公司的分析指出，目前在SEC的五人投票委员小组中，包括SEC主席Gary Gensler在内的民主党人占了多数地) n1 l, T/ T! ]) H7 c$ @% l; A& x$ q8 s
位，因此不太可能投票通过核准比特币现货ETF。0 U1 ^8 f) s" {
许多报告援引匿名消息人士预测，第一档比特币现货ETF会在1月2日前获得核准，然而这并没有发生。随着SEC在8 D& P3 h' N8 {. e" ?# O
1月10日做出决定的最后期限逼近，市场的乐观情绪正转变为怀疑，证据包括加密货币挖矿公司的股价走软，而且
6 d# i# }9 Q1 M几档与比特币相关的美国股票卖压涌现。此外，比特币在1月3日盘中一度大跌9%。 @ w& ~1 d, V1 t/ k3 l h2 A4 y
彭博社ETF分析师Eric Balchunas先前一直看好比特币现货ETF有99%的机率会在2024年第1季获准上市，现在他
4 z& O8 C/ J% |相信，SEC仍有「些许」机会可能拒绝比特币现货ETF的申请案。
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产生灾难性影响的是要看啊
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