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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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# m/ a9 Z/ p2 T( c3 i2 k只跟踪一个联赛
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( V) ~( c7 U, G全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
* c% i/ b4 t2 t3 w5 Z3 o" d- m* m" U+ j2 r) n$ ]/ ?
三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，0 z3 w. k$ j$ _
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）3 q+ W+ \5 p( W. c/ n# l

3 m8 u7 A2 o0 [# h+ R- d6 \% W+ b. W然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱6 J2 F" Y  ~$ S+ o! Y
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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: d  A* g/ S1 `9 B( G+ _
3 v' M# q% l" z7 ]4 r亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
  [' o4 N  \: Z
' i3 E; |7 G8 D4 A2 x1 p& h3 `而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，$ H- [4 |: @; f6 U& U1 t/ S4 ?

- S6 }  P2 q* z) j但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。# M% A; w8 J! I: L0 G1 T
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。; U  c& y3 p( U. w. @  j, Z

% t! s1 w2 W! ?  M3 f排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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* Y" O, M# O( J但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
7 {4 H1 C. R9 ^! C
( h! D5 m6 E/ d# n$ U3 Z% c这比买国债存银行合算。6 L  @" q1 l! |) j

8 h# Z. C& L( R, G* @2 X1 d! k在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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; S4 r+ r1 G, {% s* D( R# Z! t' C1 h几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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, d6 W/ O1 T8 A' i$ E常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。- G, N' F. f) c( a

" a8 F: Y  `  ~$ t" i放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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就是回避了大的亏损，
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$ H* t6 }0 A: h7 ?6 z' V大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，1 W- |2 W: b" H' I! M2 H0 J
  q9 L# J4 e2 H/ V# v
回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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3#
学习一下，天天进步

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4#
顶起再慢慢看

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