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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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" o+ a; t# S) c只跟踪一个联赛
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( ?4 C4 z) m. \, A% n9 t& f全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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% I2 v  W1 ]" I5 `三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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& ?9 p; r; B" i5 L* i偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）8 a5 k9 W+ L; ]% T0 F, @( V
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱/ `8 M7 |* ?4 e: l9 X
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目5 o8 j9 a+ I$ }9 N8 [& ~! R
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# n. e. F4 K: i* l0 O% `& |亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，' O) i0 F9 g+ ^+ ~! \

, l! M- K& g  K4 S( w$ e" K  y而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，  \( K$ }  N; M0 R! m5 n
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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- V6 M% q5 I4 l2 A' G1 J1 ]: ~5 a排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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+ J) C( g" L9 _* A5 |5 y但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，# B, j5 X* k, G. [/ {1 p

4 E9 P* ?: [" ]4 d' e这比买国债存银行合算。2 g. ]. _& B. V5 O/ w4 v1 z$ ]' @
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，8 E) D" p& t6 r0 e' [; X
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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2 i- J8 H1 t9 g: a, |0 K2 s% n& ?! x' I常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。; L$ k! W( Z1 J9 a$ ^' e. o
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，  j! W, j4 X7 T
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就是回避了大的亏损，$ L" X4 q* C2 i* w# S8 L; g: k

% \6 ~& r) ~; S+ J( H) g9 ~大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，4 m, ^" F: p  R

$ u- k" s/ P$ z回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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