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[虚拟币交流]
方舟投资比特币月度报告：5个指标分析BTC呈现看涨趋势（转载）
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木头姐Cathie Wood旗下的方舟投资(Ark Invest)，近期发布比特币7月的分析报告指
0 L! O4 P6 p/ y出，从比特币支撑及阻力方面来看，币价「呈现看涨」趋势。# r: J0 C2 C: y% t( n% z% i
比特币在短期持有者成本基础(28328美元)和200周均线(26623美元)处仍有支撑，而在已实现价格处，则可能面3 S! X M) a: W* R, h, v$ B
临阻力，即33949美元。
2 G: R+ }- z3 R, l已实现市值是代币最后一次链上行动时的市场价格加总计算的市值，而该指标一般来说，被用作于计算比特币被' F! C2 E7 ^3 M$ b
购买时的「平均成本」。1 G, Y' v# o3 V4 _$ y5 a1 L
同时比特币已实现波动性(90天)出现自2017年以来未见的低水平，降至36%，基于此低波动性，方舟投资认为比
% A Z+ n6 U/ W特币价格可能会在未来几个月内朝某个方向大幅波动。% K1 W1 f: |9 C4 `
在矿工活动方面，则呈现看涨迹象，比特币算力的30日移动平均线跌破了60日移动平均线，表明矿工活动已经减
3 @4 n2 G& X' ?少，这对矿工付出成本的降低有帮助. J& ^4 K G. ^2 K& p
比特币网络活跃度方面，可衡量当前持有行为的潜在抛售压力，此一指标也呈现看涨，而7月活跃度降至60%以
: K6 X/ h8 N" N. V1 J; r, w下，表现出自2020年第4季以来最强劲的长期持有行为。
/ U4 L: C; [ E/ j) O2 }比特币短期持有者盈亏比方面，同样呈现看涨，盈亏比在本月接近1，表示投机者处于盈亏平衡的水平，在牛市环' R4 Z! F3 ]. q
境中，这通常与短期修正后的看涨反转相关。, C: \5 p/ L D |! R2 U4 Q' G3 N
最后值得注意的是，方舟提醒，由于货币政策的运作有长达12至18个月的长期且可变的滞后性，联准会先前利率
' I0 n4 Y% u- U: i升息22倍的全面影响尚未显现，而这趋向于看跌，住房、制造业等对利率敏感的产业也已率先陷入衰退，其余经7 M! ^7 N4 u/ i" Q5 ^& L: K
济领域可能是下一个。' ]: f, P( a, |+ W
3 ]8 j+ \' q5 t- [/ c
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