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[lastpost] => 2818766 贝莱德比特币ETF交易量在加密货币市场激增——这预示着什么？（转） 1775364475 小作文
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币再度失守3万大关！美国就业远超预期刺激Fed加息（转载）
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虽然近期加密货币市场有所回暖，但美国整体经济指标却似乎仍未有放松货币紧缩政策的征兆。联准会主席鲍威尔也在六月底刚举办的欧洲中央银行论坛上，再次表明「坚守货币紧缩政策」的立场。
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而昨(6)日晚间，联准会官员针对6月的FOMC(联邦公开市场委员会)会议纪要作出评论，明显表达出与鲍威尔相似的货币紧缩立场。4 |5 Z: W( q2 S
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联准会官员：当前经济形势强劲，暗示还有两次升息+ P# P: q$ b* I7 h
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据路透社报道，达拉斯联邦储备银行行长Lorie Logan在昨(6)晚举办的纽约中央银行研究协会年会上强调，当前经济依然很强势，需要进一步的升息来降温：FOMC必须贯彻我们6月发出的信号。(当时)三分之二的参会人员预计至少还有两次升息。7 x2 P- k* J, _% t
1 n9 T0 M5 _/ N3 O2 D而采取升息则是出于对通膨下降不明显的忧虑，且当前的劳动力市场等指标放缓速度不达预期：我仍然非常担心通膨率是否会以可持续的方式及时回到目标值。通膨持续高于目标值、强于预期的劳动力市场使得我们必须采取更严格的货币政策。( [( T4 g# S+ q9 C2 e! G# F% G' ]" r
5 ]/ F' x5 ^2 O3 V4 @" h4 A市场预计缩表结束时间过于乐观$ z! \( x3 P* w. @: I0 Q
. h' m3 Z; x7 I @0 ]关于货币紧缩政策，Logan也分享了联准会缩表计划的观点。首先，她认为市场预计的缩表结束时间过于乐观，比她预计的时间还要早。并且，即使在通胀指标降低后，联准会依旧有可能继续抛售所持债券：这将是维持货币政策相对于经济表现立场的举措，而不是为了降低通胀率的刺激性政策。
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同时，Logan也表示联准会资产负债表的相关因素目前没有影响到对利率的决策，并且由于逆回购措施，财政部的帐户也不太可能影响到银行准备金。+ f$ K' `+ e& l9 ~3 Q& E
& L j0 P; x6 I6 |4 e美国就业数据超预期
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另一方面，美国昨(6)晚公布的6月份ADP新增就业人数增加49.7万人，比市场预期的22.8万人多了近一倍，创下自去年2月以来的最高水平，表示着就业市场依然强劲。
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. M4 L8 z4 c0 ?) x3 }# f' `. Q; j受消息影响资产市场各类指数急跌，比特币也从今日高点31,500美元急挫，并跌破30,000美元。+ r/ t/ h+ k, d7 |. `
/ N r- p/ j/ v- Y4 Y9 C. {比特币再跌破三万美元
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Fed官员鹰派的立场、加上强劲的经济数据，加强了进一步升息的可能性，也让美股和加密货币市场进一步下跌。3 ]7 M* Y' O8 J" B+ v
, v- U( c9 a( k; p! Y比特币在昨(7)日来到31,500美元，创下今年最高价位之后随即快速下滑，今晨八点左右最低更一度来到29,701美元，再度失守3万美元大关，近24小时下挫1.79%。
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市场认为7月会议将升息1码为92.4%
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, d. {# H0 B* I- ~0 C另一方面，据CMEGroup的FedWatch工具数据显示，截稿前市场认为7月会议将再升息1码的概率已升至92.4%，而保持不变的概率仅7.6%。
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) Y2 P3 `/ ]/ I3 E' e( H目前，7月利率决策公布的具体时间为本月27日的凌晨2:00(北京时间)。
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