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预知市场底部是不可能的，但我们可以利用三个指标来获得熊市何时接近结束的早期信号。 + e) s8 s6 l9 ~7 U# M- U- Z' N
价格每天都在下跌，目前我们心中的问题是：“市场何时见底，熊市将持续多久？” 8 y4 k8 S2 P' F) j4 d- _
虽然无法预测熊市何时结束，但研究之前的下跌趋势可以帮助我们了解该阶段何时结束。
' s4 a; g5 ?' u/ s' c以下是华尔街交易员用来帮助了解熊市何时结束的三个指标。
& l1 R) p5 T( S2 |RSI 指标 判断底部之王
1 e9 j& V! i6 ^- |+ f/ t `" ^相对强度指数 (RSI)是了解熊市何时可能处于低点的技术指标。
/ ? H0 S* {. [( b4 F; }更具体地说，在之前的熊市中，比特币 RSI 跌至超卖区域，并在 BTC 创出低点跌破 16 分时。 6 z. \* r+ h5 e& w3 k6 _1 X
基于图中用橙色圆圈突出显示的两个实例，比特币价格跌至RSI指数16时难以进一步下跌，并且RSI 再次回升至 70 上方进入超买区域，才确认低点已经出现，这表明需求的增加再次回到了市场。
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" y7 l3 G H( W& y! Z- x' vBTC/USDT 日线图表。图片资料来源：TradingView 2 U" y/ r/ L& V ?2 k
市场价值对实现价值
7 F- y! d( b* Q1 S- e实现价值的市场价值（MVRV）Z 分数是一个指标，旨在识别比特币相对于其‘公允价值’被极度高估或低估的时期。 " s; c4 m* o' Y& }1 g
图中的蓝线代表比特币的当前市值，橙线代表比特币的价格，红线代表 Z 分数，这是一种“标准差测试，在数据中拉出市值和实现价值。” w6 a# R0 U8 u6 |7 Y. R6 w
如图所示：底部的浅绿色区域突出显示了之前的熊市中 Z 分数低于 0.1的位置，表示比特币价格已严重低估。该指标回升至 0.1 分以上，将确认新的上升趋势的开始。
3 ]; @. O6 }7 x! |3 G0 V% {根据历史表现，该指标表明比特币在目前仍可能存在下行空间，随后会出现较长时间的横向价格走势。 - M' f) e6 c. s. c
+ w3 B; D T+ p" t7 s1 oMVRV Z 分数。图片资料来源：LookIntoBitcoin
5 b0 c3 U: b. h: ?7 g两年移动平均乘数通道
3 ?, w* o, i4 t* b+ n7 r! ^& c! g观察熊市何时结束的最终指标是 2 年移动平均乘数通道。该指标跟踪 两年移动平均线 (MA) 与比特币价格的 5 倍乘积。 : ]% ~: Z. y6 V; I7 `5 g
下图中蓝色线为两年平均移动线，红色线为比特币价格的 5 倍乘积。只要 BTC 的价格跌破 2 年均线，市场就进入熊市区域。一旦价格回升至 2 年均线上方，就会出现上涨趋势。 ' ^0 O: R1 ?/ Z$ {
另一方面，价格攀升至 红色线预示着牛市可能见顶，是获利了结的好时机。 1 Y7 V$ ^ m# [! O( P
8 o7 Z6 e1 w3 `- }, l- r9 h
两年 MA 乘数通道 |
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