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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
0 E" O0 x+ G5 X) J* y0 ^
" h6 X8 w( f5 Z 平手中水,主队有利
2 C6 G+ _* V) J/ ~* z 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
# ^) q6 g) x4 n1 v8 z 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
. @" E4 Z0 S3 ], S2 Z# {) |2 V 英超主队! v" c* ~7 F" L/ V1 |% |6 o k
胜:13场 48%
1 C, k% H+ v$ ~1 b8 m n 平:5场 17%
& N( t2 c2 n, f" {5 L 负:9场 35%
, D- `- R3 V0 P 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。2 ~5 w; {7 X5 L, q8 A# ~, k
6 `/ P! W3 L) e0 c 一、初盘阶段
8 Q" [6 E: y# w6 v 具体到水位如下:/ k0 }: ^& q7 k5 z% j4 G
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
: \, @* E: \- ?3 h6 B 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
. {) `- M* @! E: ~# ^1 s+ | 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
. v2 x) f' ?4 ~ R3 l$ S . d! R: D4 Y6 \: B- @
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。9 F O$ U( _: Z
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。% X& }0 B- B% r- G' l
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
! m" L$ }3 `9 w , g9 N% U4 R- j! z9 d( B
二、临场阶段$ B5 V7 s* d: d1 `7 W6 g6 E
. J$ [$ c- {1 B4 _0 ] 具体到变盘和水位如下:. F$ c/ U! b' q g
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
) u5 L1 E$ [* P 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负9 L( m3 p! A5 d
2 V6 k0 g: F) M7 c% | 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。* x, M) `& T& }
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:6 U# x( d! m2 d
# ^; q7 p. B& V' `. r! X! ` 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿0 F5 Y1 ?5 [/ ~4 T/ C
初盘:0.82平手1.041 O. N- H1 M1 T
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.850 \1 u, e: P) Y# \: o S% E* B
[/ r: G: _0 x# }
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆/ @- x2 L, t6 N
初盘:0.76平手1.10! G+ _5 e9 G/ H2 k- q! x* v* S" j
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
9 `9 |: A( q- Y" w: v5 P+ ^" V & O3 i$ T/ j# z9 W0 ?/ O/ d
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
1 z/ L4 X2 B: v. h7 Y 初盘:0.82平手1.04
. M. p# c6 P4 |% X 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
* y' C$ ?7 a0 {- `7 S! D' ~ . U, b3 Z, r" \* y7 V, a0 ^
伯恩利2-1西汉姆. G" r7 T. u4 ~/ E- n" V' P
初盘:0.88平手0.986 Q0 z' w4 r3 Q: J0 O
终盘:1.12平/半0.740 i! x) n& g8 @. J. t3 c s
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
- P# H9 G6 R0 H G) S 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
/ C* q j ]# W8 [" U+ g# j 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。. S# M6 O9 I/ D8 s
/ z, p" m9 k6 X0 `/ w
三、球队表现; l9 Z7 W: S) W, |7 I* e
/ R( k/ I, t2 E, L5 n# U9 P$ m
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
5 U6 d, m7 d( w0 h
9 [5 i w% j, }4 k! Z1 f. b x 四、投注要点. b% i0 \: j2 f8 X
要点1:平手中水、主多不败
: a/ H2 ?* n5 C& Z4 g/ M% N 要点2:平手降盘、走两头
" C$ G! n7 m0 l: Y0 m5 a 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
. [6 M- Q6 G/ x+ J 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
0 A6 E$ N3 w; Y. Q9 i 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任1 @ Q6 v( a, n/ F
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
9 m, {" W Z- i& F8 D* } 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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