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[虚拟币交流]
比特币现货ETF流量及其最新脱钩——是时候小心了吗？（转）
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比特币现货ETF似乎正在失去其在整个市场的影响力
- j; f. E- w/ m* Z, q比特币可能在本周下半年出现短期下跌' T' M$ }3 G$ i" y# e! Z
周三，比特币在注意到自1月8日以来持续的资金外流后，首次录得正的现货ETF流量。然而，最新的ETF流量也揭示了一些关于其影响的其他有趣发现。7 b4 c0 c. O. m% d+ x0 D% A1 J |
, l& `9 m: i. H( g比特币的价格走势在很大程度上，这与现货ETF的流动是同步的。然而，最近情况并非如此。例如，BTC从本周早些时候的最低点上涨了12.81%，周三触及当地高点100175美元。与此同时，比特币现货ETF在周三之前的一周内只出现了负流量。' C% S" N# u* z
: E; c0 J6 O/ G7 ]! @" e简而言之，尽管现货ETF资金外流，比特币本周仍成功实现了反弹。这突显了一种脱钩，这种脱钩也可能在本周剩余时间内持续。
0 A M2 e( }7 `
8 q! r/ ~, J& \2 b Z然而，1月15日，比特币现货ETF流量记录了价值7.551亿美元的流入。这是本月迄今为止记录的第三高日流量。0 J9 l: j* E( S) m
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值得指出的是，尽管有这些发现，但在过去的24小时里，BTC确实略有下跌，图表上的跌幅略高于1.5%。1 H' R0 F# W3 D
* }+ w) l9 ?- o5 N; c! R i D% |- N比特币在活动疲软的情况下保持对短期楔形模式的关注. R. U6 T' x+ J( j6 }% w5 z1 H x
在撰写本文时，比特币的交易价格为99236美元。此外，图表上出现更多下行似乎是一种真正的可能性。5 {8 l& V' ]" p( S+ e: ?, E
' h/ b! J$ a9 d! ?
潜在下行的原因是比特币的最新价格上涨重新测试了下行阻力线。它还显示出过去24小时的一些抛售压力，这表明阻力位仍然强劲。* n5 d% R, \& ?* w
' S2 O; q3 N1 M9 z* n
此外，链上数据显示，BTC在现货市场一直出现资金外流。事实上，仅在过去24小时内，加密货币就有1.5601亿美元的现货流出。
. P9 w# @) i% R. i0 R* y" Y
) p; C& N1 Y7 W现货资金外流的激增表明，投资者仍专注于短期获利回吐。这可能会提供对当前需求状况的见解——这表明短期情绪并不乐观。- h2 Y& f4 H3 Q% S
& C# {9 C% ~. @; G L" H
鲸鱼活动也与短期情绪一致。例如，最新的大持有者流量数据显示，周三有1420个BTC流入，而同期有494个BTC流出。鲸鱼的需求更高，因此影响了看涨表现。
# e* L. h# Q. d, f3 r* M$ F9 A5 Z- x2 [
虽然鲸鱼的需求明显高于外流，但也值得注意的是，整体需求疲软。尤其是与12月的需求激增相比。
* ^$ R f; K& F0 ~* \8 U
4 J) a: L' @' i$ q4 g" k鲸鱼的低参与率充分说明了市场的信心水平。这可能表明比特币仍然局限于短期走势，在这种情况下，价格可能会从阻力位回落。然而，投资者应该注意可能影响市场的重大发展。6 K+ v0 f6 y \9 G# l* Q$ A
( L. t# K. t! M; e9 z( o+ a/ m0 Q3 g |
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