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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。9 t/ F/ s% d/ {; s- u
+ D' F" U: n. v! W6 ]- r瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心9 Q4 R, N3 K) \0 r& b
9 H/ {2 G" T: S9 }: ]8 U) ~ i, v- ~
衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
7 _' |5 v ~* p* a: E7 n; q美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金; R* `/ }5 t/ I# O2 r( O
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。& p2 }' ~/ P9 y& z3 B7 U! |
' B, I* e: X. R3 H7 Z/ }过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益0 w7 z# Z9 U7 h5 h# v
2 Y' s9 ^( Q" A9 J! c% |7 B8 d# s
率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。* L2 V6 D; t+ D
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国2 _* a# Q! w. n& Z7 D! R. n
/ N- F& S2 D {/ U$ ~
长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
' ^- S4 x, X( r" y8 P' J B8 S# X4 H5 h! `- }, I* j$ g
是表示：5 p% p; Y* z& s
2 l- T* D# f i, P2 a这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。) K6 O/ \6 R3 t9 N) s
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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, E# w( I# M9 ?( H' w5 b3 o1 M特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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; b3 e/ F+ l4 Q; w8 s: b/ A, Y标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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, D' v- z% c* i3 D' M周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。7 D# _, o h; C
/ W! M" Q; B2 r/ c3 x0 @. |周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
! I; T5 B2 N, ~# {5 r A* F/ F/ V) B/ j% O, X" q( K
周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债$ g" k" k% ^! v3 W5 J3 P+ `* F4 J
$ t7 O" S8 v6 @收益率冲高回落。! H3 G- q% b" I/ l' G
3 g0 O G3 t5 J6 c4 ?% x周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
9 |3 x8 k, r1 X2 w
% t1 N0 D& k+ r' g' j' T周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
! U* [9 o/ z8 z/ h/ e$ r1 k1 ?5 q' Q9 }' d! A$ Z& ~7 h+ w
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$ V% }* q( s6 V' h+ r
/ f* i8 D0 m9 u" N0 \. V ^Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，+ k) X/ n) k: c0 g$ t0 g. O' d
% w- K: w6 n$ B4 Y5 d( j" G
是的，这正是我们所看到的。": Z! F& ?2 A5 y* u2 a
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
2 ?6 C# ?) t h/ X, O7 f$ ]3 j$ u/ H) t2 f! s; e# n
年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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" N5 o3 `1 Z! L) hRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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% \2 F; s- Q/ a9 J7 x* G. n/ y+ `2 f; T% l% K C! Z+ _7 N5 a
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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