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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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( c& _* [* C( @% s& \; O6 k& w: o 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。9 a* e( f6 ]& \1 C7 U: A
# `( O7 k- d' j$ y' U: l 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。* V3 Y, {) k6 W) x3 a9 [- G* e
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。 x/ z: R7 _9 D3 w+ E2 g
6 j X& q! L4 P- h! m: y- b$ z 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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$ U6 s- E" B4 O9 ^; C 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。# C' c) C8 c! E4 y; l% D5 `9 y
) H7 y. k9 l* } 知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，% m9 o6 D$ R9 t$ S0 g3 ?# W
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价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。
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1 _/ f1 E2 @* x6 M5 |) H “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间$ X. t3 x% O/ c: s, |/ q
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。” o* C1 W0 N: g" U/ x
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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! ?& X, L# z) n- l “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在3 @( s2 Q5 m1 w. ^# }
# _- x3 o" O# ^( |8 Z# N积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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, X K9 k: k( r0 S' Q* t 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。! R0 M, u5 n* G* d2 W N
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比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势3 i- y# ?8 _ d9 w( {
. W9 z' S) E0 Y& Z O8 T 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。* O* [& D6 L/ }( f' u5 k; x
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* c$ A0 K" ?: {: b0 I) u. ^ 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，3 Q" }' W/ \, [
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”! F- k/ T# V( X6 V4 `) A
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