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[lastpost] => 2751699 吹牛航 彻底废了 1753357193 天策-瑶娥
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, b) B5 ^. @% A" `- K 中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称,加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性,自诞生以来成长迅速,并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大,
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6 z! L) v) i6 V形成类似黄金的刚需托底,投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高,加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内,预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于
* e. |7 C3 e: h" T% M3 J/ {- o6 @+ ^. m W% ~ M+ D
逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币,但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松,但需等待贸易、外交政( T- Q8 `- X3 z, o0 |2 t0 i" M9 T
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策的确定性。
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中信证券主要观点如下:
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加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币,具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。
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自其诞生以来,市场成长迅速,例如比特币呈指数型增长。
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近期加密货币表现不佳,并未体现出避险属性。: d8 U$ ?1 d! m) Q w# B
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2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨,分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高;以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现9 q8 B9 ?+ f9 k/ Y/ b3 l) y5 j: r
3 K% ?4 [& V( Z! K* t8 R不佳,与黄金走势背离,并未体现出避险属性。
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加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。0 B1 s4 Y! L: m* O
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从规模来看,加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场,增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看,两者都是集中度较高,且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明,均有利于价格的长期上行。
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6 [ T% i5 N+ C5 r 加密货币开始出现刚性需求,形成与黄金类似的刚需托底,投机定价的格局。9 U1 a6 F, p4 S. r% U( _
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由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势,形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”,与黄金一样形成了刚需,以确保其难以出现泡沫5 G: N0 W( M. k, l. [
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破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。
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短期内,加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金,因此表现背离。
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* E* K6 s/ d- n% ]' N 我们认为根本的原因是1)社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2)由于加密货币高成长性,边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内,加密货币避险属性和投机属性# M1 n. O- r0 e
: s* ^0 T, v2 b共存,后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。7 M! k. z: H- c; R
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长期来看,加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间,最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化,驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。
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* f( e# ~' ~0 s# T 2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续,预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上,黄金和加密货币的货币属性,都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣( D, {6 l' o F- t5 i5 X
# H: B G8 h" Q* ~* J. q势,比特币不必然是未来的黄金,但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此,我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间,比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。* g, ]4 O. J$ D: i
0 X3 T9 j) R; Q) I/ w; M 展望未来四年,比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼,但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。
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本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政
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1 b" K5 z$ [. a- T& V/ ~策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。
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风险因素:% h3 r% v; K' o7 P3 P8 p
+ } P: E( m( f/ b 特朗普ZF政策超预期;美国联邦债务问题超预期;美联储货币政策宽松不及预期;地缘ZZ风险。; }6 B* F: k, }1 F" o2 _4 Q8 O
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