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' J1 G0 z/ h0 n$ a' J 中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称，加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性，自诞生以来成长迅速，并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大，
1 E6 L& W3 |( b5 Q2 ^$ H6 i8 K1 ?! ?6 o6 r
* O1 h0 E9 i% J1 K形成类似黄金的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高，加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内，预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于+ I0 u$ w1 H+ i
- v/ j1 e& L1 V7 i. _1 v' P逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币，但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松，但需等待贸易、外交政3 \( O0 ^- B* K7 j
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策的确定性。3 k+ ]1 _0 X7 E/ ]% v3 A5 V0 v! z
9 K/ }4 \6 U Z+ C& f 中信证券主要观点如下：$ {' J" W9 D% b F
( Z0 s; D D2 `$ k6 L& n. m 加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币，具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。- k, d4 L" A2 I- N7 g5 I( P$ \
! y+ g2 Z) n# D' T; M7 ?4 d- i; W 自其诞生以来，市场成长迅速，例如比特币呈指数型增长。3 k2 x) x3 v& O6 B' v! X% K, w
/ F. f4 G. ~0 f! W% H- c. w4 v 近期加密货币表现不佳，并未体现出避险属性。
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2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨，分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高；以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现
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不佳，与黄金走势背离，并未体现出避险属性。
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+ [$ ~$ V& |9 m. O: v- v2 c" d 加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。! @) S% I) x' B; u6 F- ?9 w+ K0 J
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从规模来看，加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场，增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看，两者都是集中度较高，且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明，均有利于价格的长期上行。
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加密货币开始出现刚性需求，形成与黄金类似的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。
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由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势，形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”，与黄金一样形成了刚需，以确保其难以出现泡沫% Z* }7 X. j! c1 c: |5 s% N* W
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破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。2 t/ S# C; U. a( M( ~
- T) h* f1 p- }; q! K R- E7 P* X 短期内，加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金，因此表现背离。5 r5 F9 ^8 a' X6 S; e/ _4 u
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我们认为根本的原因是1）社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2）由于加密货币高成长性，边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内，加密货币避险属性和投机属性, y. e( I# m+ E- x- i) a* _5 S
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共存，后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。& @- c5 i# C1 x N
1 N: R: w/ x' k q+ p* w 长期来看，加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间，最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化，驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。" p" w2 S) \/ _( g
+ c. C X# r' [" l# u 2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续，预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上，黄金和加密货币的货币属性，都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣
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势，比特币不必然是未来的黄金，但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此，我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间，比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。: v4 v n, y5 [ i9 Q% {
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展望未来四年，比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼，但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。
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本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政
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策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。
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风险因素：
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7 I, {5 H8 Z- w5 D1 |$ e d 特朗普ZF政策超预期；美国联邦债务问题超预期；美联储货币政策宽松不及预期；地缘ZZ风险。. \2 ?$ C$ x( A0 C/ \- i5 Y
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