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3 Z |1 p& m T8 T( @2 K8 x3 e L 中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称，加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性，自诞生以来成长迅速，并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大，
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形成类似黄金的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高，加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内，预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于
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8 P3 \8 l( g$ ~) M) e/ s+ `逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币，但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松，但需等待贸易、外交政, f2 }$ W; H2 p. b5 q0 K
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策的确定性。. j. q, e+ c+ r& Z8 o4 a8 j7 {2 d
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中信证券主要观点如下：! U; v' C0 r( K" a9 T4 ?" o
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加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币，具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。# z2 S! f: V8 D/ q) ~0 J! v
" ~+ B' l2 Y6 ~* M; h0 y& _# }, ?; W 自其诞生以来，市场成长迅速，例如比特币呈指数型增长。
6 P! @: |$ z5 v( w3 K6 }
8 g" t3 c% u# |4 u& x1 a" }8 M4 d 近期加密货币表现不佳，并未体现出避险属性。( K! F% t1 K& f2 ^& [# `: ?& T
& K( B2 q4 N, J8 I. O 2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨，分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高；以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现) I, X- Z' Y1 \) q
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不佳，与黄金走势背离，并未体现出避险属性。
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9 `: b; s: x3 u# B/ w 加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。& }( N7 f/ H7 b9 r6 b
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从规模来看，加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场，增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看，两者都是集中度较高，且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明，均有利于价格的长期上行。9 l6 Q2 ]4 J0 P+ W8 X& M
3 y" m" K8 {& `& y3 h' O 加密货币开始出现刚性需求，形成与黄金类似的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。
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; e* R" c1 l. W/ M7 I 由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势，形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”，与黄金一样形成了刚需，以确保其难以出现泡沫/ o8 h9 P2 g X. Z1 u
/ h5 l% M' P9 s- {, {+ j8 `破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。
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1 j8 g! r/ S' k 短期内，加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金，因此表现背离。
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1 _ o4 p U+ T5 p8 [ 我们认为根本的原因是1）社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2）由于加密货币高成长性，边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内，加密货币避险属性和投机属性
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3 i5 x& o6 @- H共存，后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。* n' a6 M( W, K
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长期来看，加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间，最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化，驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。
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2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续，预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上，黄金和加密货币的货币属性，都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣. r) @$ y( v0 o
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势，比特币不必然是未来的黄金，但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此，我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间，比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。
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q( y7 _2 Y0 o2 |" {1 ]' y+ b 展望未来四年，比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼，但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。; Z2 r/ X# F% x/ _; a
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本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政1 W; J, ~8 [/ f
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策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。
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3 C6 o! }8 X6 W; G" W 风险因素：5 e5 z' q$ u' @
8 v4 E4 I; t: G$ T 特朗普ZF政策超预期；美国联邦债务问题超预期；美联储货币政策宽松不及预期；地缘ZZ风险。5 |4 h& p5 y6 G$ b
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