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[虚拟币交流]
XRP价格预测：空头三角 VS 链上买墙 谁先被突破？-转
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XRP当前报价2.77美元，日内小涨0.45%；但整体走势依旧偏混合，短期或有下行风险，长期仍具上行潜力。 日线级别上，XRP依旧运行在一个下降三角形形态中，该形态通常是大波动前的蓄势信号。自7月中旬以来，空头不断在更低的高点压制反弹，而多头则死守在2.70美元一线。 分析师预计，XRP可能回踩至2.50美元一带，技术面与链上信号在此区间重合。数据显示，2.45–2.55美元区间存在买盘集群，一旦价格跌入该区，流动性或将触发反弹。市场研究机构 Sistine Research 指出，这是自2024年末以来XRP最弱的流动性压缩——历史上这种情况往往是大行情爆发的前兆。 - 关键压力位：2.97美元（50日均线）、3.25美元（突破触发点）
- 支撑集群：2.70美元（即时防守位）、2.45–2.55美元（链上买墙）
- RSI指标：徘徊在40附近，动能偏弱. j! W/ t4 K' s7 C" L7 }: r
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ETF动向与宏观压力除了K线，机构级产品也在不断塑造市场情绪。REX/Osprey XRPR ETF 已录得 3800万美元成交量，而 富兰克林邓普顿（Franklin Templeton） 在11月的ETF决议，或将成为下一个潜在催化剂。分析师认为，若获批，这类基金将进一步提升XRP的合规性与正统性，并加深其流动性池。 比特币在 220亿美元期权到期、全网 15亿美元爆仓 后，一度跌破 11万美元关口。以太坊跌至 7周新低，XRP 同期下跌 2.9% 至 2.74美元。 与此同时，美国核心PCE数据表现平稳，进一步强化了市场对美联储年内降息的预期。若兑现，可能为风险资产带来流动性利好，成为新一轮行情的潜在燃料。 1 v" l I7 w' X' g
在当前宏观环境下，XRP短期仍显脆弱。避险情绪让交易员保持谨慎；但一旦宽松的货币政策预期与ETF审批利好落地，市场情绪可能迅速倒向XRP多头。
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) S$ `% g' `% ?$ u' X8 w( d价格预测：突破一触即发按现价计算，XRP的市值约 1665亿美元，在 CoinMarketCap 上排名 第四。收敛三角形已接近尾声，意味着大动作即将到来。若日线收盘站稳 3.25美元 上方，将确认突破，并打开 3.43美元与3.66美元 上方目标空间。
. K( b3 N: B1 V' |" m' B3 y7 `反之，若跌破 2.70美元，则可能回探 2.48美元与2.26美元 区间，之后才会有买盘在链上支撑墙进场托底。 K线形态显示，在支撑位附近多次出现长下影线，暗示尽管上方抛压明显，但下方仍有资金在悄悄吸筹。
. E9 S8 E! n) y7 T# \1 O: e2 b对于交易者而言，潜在的操作思路是：若XRP有效突破 3.25美元，可考虑开多，止损位放在 3.00美元下方。 若 2.70美元防线失守，则空头将占优，目标下看 2.48美元。而长期投资者则可能将 2.50美元附近的回调 视为入场机会，尤其是在机构资金加速流入的情况下。 展望后市，XRP的关键在于：空头三角形会否进一步向下破位，还是由买墙吸收抛压并点燃反弹。随着技术面压缩、ETF利好预期与宏观流动性变化共同叠加，接下来的数周很可能决定XRP年末前的主趋势走向。
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