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[lastpost] => 2768754 要给7亿美元空投,Aster S2怎么刷最合适 1758742158 caoch
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币又创新高!突破9万美元,24小时超25万人爆仓!(转)
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比特币创历史新高。
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近期,比特币持续走强。11月12日纽约尾盘,CME比特币期货主力合约报88995美元,较前一日尾盘涨1.44%,日内交投区间为85890~90725美元。据Coin Metrics数据,现货比特币曾在美股收盘之前短暂涨至90036.17美元,创历史新高。
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. w0 P0 Z$ j5 X$ P; pCoinglass数据显示,24小时内,全网爆仓人数超过25万,爆仓总金额8.89亿美元。9 k5 h; M }+ H7 C
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9 P8 t) `: ]( t% V. u; d! `贵金属持续下挫
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& v. E V( [( p$ Y2 `( p+ \近期,贵金属持续下挫。10月31日至11月12日,国内黄金主力合约下跌4.48%,白银主力合约下跌6.35%。国内金饰价格应声跟跌。本周二,周生生报价为788元/克,较前一日下跌14元/克;
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/ Z3 W, t: v8 W/ S/ P* e老庙黄金报价为787元/克,下跌12元/克;周大福足金饰品报价为788元/克,下跌11元/克。
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外盘方面,COMEX黄金主力合约于10月30日升至2801.8美元/盎司,创历史新高,随后持续下行,11月12日最低触及2595.7美元/盎司,累计下跌超200美元/盎司,跌幅达7.36%。
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大有期货贵金属研究员段恩典认为,近期贵金属回调的原因有三点:一是前期价格大幅上涨透支了部分利多,比如中东地缘冲突、美联储降息以及美国大选的不确定性等,这些因素随着时间的推移,已经落地或者被市场消化,
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' \6 {4 e7 X1 R& e7 T3 z1 j对行情的推动作用减弱;二是短期美国部分经济数据改善,美元指数和美债收益率明显上升,对贵金属价格形成了压力;三是美国核心通胀较为坚挺,特朗普上台后若大幅加征关税,可能会导致输入性通胀,市场担心后续美$ K6 }$ k( o' U
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联储不会继续降息。' Y3 z& a9 W4 r% f& l
! o! ?, b1 j" a: Z% Q宏源期货有色与贵金属分析师王文虎认为,美联储未来降息节奏与美国就业和通胀息息相关。若特朗普上台后压缩财政赤字,有助于抑制美国消费端通胀,支持美联储逐步降息,美联储2025年全年或降息100个基点;反之,容/ E. W' {( s( u L# h ?) q0 v
8 {/ v, @& X+ e+ |# M3 ^5 Z( V易引发美国二次通胀预期,美联储降息节奏或放缓。
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! R" a0 ~! M0 Q5 t9 M; v在段恩典看来,特朗普主张降低利率、减税和增加关税,并希望美元指数走弱,以实现制造业重新回流美国。美国经济对降息等政策的敏感度较高,在目前经济有所改善的情况下,减税和降息政策将使经济更加活跃,美国出现6 b3 w9 }% D5 P( c* f
" M- Z2 s1 S3 A: r2 M& D二次通胀的概率较大。前期美国通胀较低,美联储年内降息较为顺利,2025年特朗普上台后,新的政策会陆续出台,经济和通胀预期会慢慢改变,美联储货币政策执行难度将加大,不排除因通胀反弹,美联储暂停降息甚至中途
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一德期货贵金属分析师张晨认为,11月FOMC会议如期降息25个基点,尽管美联储官员在讲话中极力回避下一届ZF的政策可能对未来货币政策造成的不确定性,但市场仍计入了二次通胀以及美联储降息周期进一步压缩的预期。
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/ K. @3 U+ I X% f9 H从当前来看,距离新一届ZF履职尚有一段时间,仅通过竞选主张过度定价其执政政策或失之偏颇。从美国经济基本面看,四季度的去通胀进程仍面临一定阻碍,市场对此前偏乐观的降息预期进行修正无可厚非,关注12月FOMC
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( t5 W3 R. x4 c" V0 g会议公布的点阵图。1 v: _4 D. A2 L
% \& m. S+ z6 Z% C9 `( |! z( F“年内宏观和市场因素对贵金属行情的支撑有限。”段恩典说,美国ZF债务压力会因宽财政政策而进一步加大,中长期因素对黄金价格依然形成利多,黄金价格跌幅或有限,年内或回调整理。白银价格整体跟随黄金,但因经济和( |+ v& O+ ^. K; S4 Z
) C2 ?' H9 b( l7 p! Y) v政策的不确定性,行情或大幅波动。
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张晨预计,贵金属的调整势头或至少延续至月底,转折可能来自后续的经济数据给出美国经济超预期下行的情境,如就业数据超预期回落。此外,还可以从美联储官员讲话基调边际变化上一窥端倪。
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