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[打法交流] 对百家乐玩家的忠告(转载)
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1#
闲只在0-5加牌,庄只在0-6加牌而且6只在闲加到6/7时加牌(庄0-2只要闲加牌一律加牌):. _& p$ s6 S8 Z! p
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1、4+5=9,4+6=10=0,多4显然对闲有利。
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2、各牌多寡(根据算牌得知)对庄胜闲赢或和之影响可以用电脑模拟计算。例如用8副牌若少一支4,开庄/闲/和输率会自原始状况(1.05791%/1.23508%/14.35963%)变化。若少4庄赢机率增加即证实我们根据加牌规则的逻辑分析。' z$ x9 L% n( n- l6 k( l" |- B* t
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电脑计算结果少某支牌庄闲胜负输率若如下:
$ L3 e& {( B* I2 B/ H5 D4 |9 @/ z
' i( u, ^7 a: A" _1 p! y% }少一张 开闲机率自(1.23508%)
+ r9 r% E/ s7 c; h2 `, _8 O4 [7 n7 g+ L7 c/ t' X
升(降)%
' q2 a, A: ]! k: a, }
; s' K  O+ q5 n+ ?8 D: g# E7 \  `$ eA (0.0018)* l$ `4 z2 v4 k1 _' g) h! S
7 t' {% a* F3 ~  @8 E( x
2 (0.0045)
1 [: V$ Z, b/ B# E7 s6 O$ ]4 \
( ?9 e4 _* o. b3 P5 @. @% D4 E3 (0.0054)
0 T4 N+ g+ I) q! ?2 ~: T. I( n/ r" _; `: v) {
4 (0.0120)
. H3 i0 L/ X* k( ?  {& r
  W: I1 F+ d! I% h# x* x5 0.00849 C$ o6 z( C& L0 \

8 F! [+ U( Z6 S9 r, H0 Y1 a9 _6 0.0113
6 L. |/ B% t" [  T, B7 k  J- e: W; Y- t' S
7 0.00821 ]( {6 X& _4 p% f
# G( U7 v, Z5 X( D% |9 j1 W
8 0.0053$ \% y6 f- `( R3 O* ]

4 Y3 C. u0 @3 @* q" S! F9 0.0025
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例如打8副牌,少一张4,下闲的输率自-1.23508%增加0.012%至-1.24708%……即少4对闲不利。# n8 o- u$ |& Y3 v

" Q6 M# U" x3 H5 W% e( [; o由于每一组牌都可以用电脑计算出庄闲和机率,玩家只要等到剩牌分配对其有利时即可下注获利。玩家当然不太可能把电脑放在赌桌旁(在线博彩也有可能)每把算牌。21点专家把算牌简化成+1-1在脑中计算。百家乐算牌也可以简化……简化前我们先问一个基本问题:
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21点当退佣高时不算牌即可获利,若赌规好(可以早降)而切牌少(6副切1副不打)算出好牌的机会常高达百分之三十、四十。百家乐算牌获利多少?值不值得?) o2 x0 X0 f' |8 X( \! |# N4 h5 i6 w

  M( ^3 l0 H8 w3 a; w/ ~假设用8副牌每一张牌的影响如下表:" H0 c4 _4 f1 {; H1 y
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原始牌庄/收益率为-1.05791%,-1.23508%,-14.35963%' T0 C8 d' ?5 x$ H2 _
+ x  {( i  e$ J& y0 L
当足够的牌打出足以克服庄闲和输率时,玩家有机会获利。问题是好牌机会甚少:
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所谓穿透率指一盒牌切多少比例不打,例如用8副穿透率九成指切0.8副不打……在8副牌打7.2副的情形下好牌的机会只有万分之1.77(庄闲和合计)……一万把(3000小时?)只有两把……而21点1万把有2000把!
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一般8副牌很少只留11张不打(98%穿透率)。但即使只留11张不打,好牌机会仍只有1.2%。
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如果用最精确的方法算牌也只“一年”找得到两次下注机会,百家乐算牌的用处显然太小。+ B1 m" j/ [7 I5 f
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不过如果你(因为喜欢?)非玩百家乐不可或可以拿到很高的退佣,算牌仍是玩百家乐的最佳策略。6 ]0 B$ V0 R4 S* Z
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当然你不可能用上述的最佳洗牌法。博智在“打败庄家”一书中提供简化的百家乐算牌法。由于不同点牌对庄闲和影响不同(如“4”对闲的影响是“3”的两倍),不同点数标数不同:) |9 E. I( }- \0 a$ Y$ X

) O! r( h- V2 v4 I3 P点数 标数
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' v% ^  |; r3 }; I" eA +1
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; |! C: W9 c- c( C0 F! Y* t% G7 G2 +1) ]2 w8 p$ e! _  q$ o( u4 }9 ~
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3 +2, b! x* x4 y5 R0 R+ l1 w  ?

  |4 N' g! r& y( |4 +3
4 m' T- }( m/ E0 T' }4 S* b
/ G( [, Y. r% `+ E0 k% k" L5 -2# M# m4 C! @3 {8 b0 V2 ]/ A# W2 x

: }8 N8 g$ L# ~1 ~6 -2% P2 j: \" `1 m  \* ~
1 P6 h  u+ b+ ^: p  @
7 -2& z# W9 [/ g6 f; A. E! r+ y0 q
, q0 [) d/ [9 W/ M3 l  D
8 -1
, e) p' w" e% l! ~; E5 m4 }* i/ V; X6 A* B2 o, I' |; c4 W+ z: p
9 0
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0 0# b5 w& W; O3 A# Y

+ @  Q" v+ f$ r" C- d9 i自0起算,看到A/2加1,“3”加2,“4”加3,5/6/7减2,“8”减1,9/0当没看到,算到正值表示小牌出得多,庄胜算提高。
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: R, {/ v& I, ]1 |算出的数称为流水数。流水数除以剩下的副数称为真数。不同真数时庄闲和的收益率如下表(%):# q. t" [0 ^' J! M7 d2 p5 t' P

/ j& F% g" }; x注意真数“0”时为标准牌下的收益率,下庄-1.058%,下闲-1.235%下和-14.36%。-16时下闲输率-0.586%,+16下庄输率-0.51%。如果你拿到1.2%洗码退佣(依下注额为0.6%),±16时可以下注获利。若你拿不到退佣,得等-27时下闲(+0.022%)或+29时下庄(+0.02%)……大约玩半年会碰到一次。2 e- C8 b1 F6 j9 a; n, c( q
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3、结论  ]  B8 N# s- T7 k
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百家乐的钞票不比21点美丽。鱼与熊掌不可得兼。想赢选好赢的,想玩选好玩的。扛了想赢的大旗玩好玩不好赢的赌戏,南辕北辙,不输也难。( n, W9 F/ x7 k2 Y( u& I% D2 E8 z
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评分

参与人数 1贡献值 +3 收起 理由
avatar 天策-萌二姐 + 3 百家乐的打法真的很多

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avatar
这个的话也是要了解一下了
avatar
3#
玩百家乐的朋友,认真看看了
avatar
你研究的非常透彻也是很科学
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
这些忠告都是没有用的东西了啊
avatar
6#
不玩百家乐就是最好的忠告
avatar
7#
你还是先去告诉一下你自己的吧
avatar
8#
认真看看了
avatar
9#
我已经不玩百家乐好多年了
avatar
不知这个是不是真的管用的了
avatar
11#
感谢楼主的忠告,还是非常值得借鉴。
avatar
12#
忠告是可以去看看了解下啦 。
avatar
还是方法的,楼主的强项了
avatar
那百家乐这个东西真的非常难搞
avatar
这个还是需要能够多多的学习一下的。
avatar
16#
这个有点难度不好理解得了
avatar
17#
转载的也是很不错的东西的哦。
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