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[虚拟币交流]
比特币持有者拒绝出售 110 亿美元的利润——他们的耐心会得到回报吗?(转)
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已实现利润达到 104,000 BTC——远低于标志着市场见顶的 350,000 BTC 门槛。8 ^1 ^+ c% y5 `' M, z6 X4 q7 T4 F- \
BTC 可能会在 104,000 美元附近盘整,但如果市场情绪保持不变,目前的趋势有利于回升至 110,000 美元。! R- k, j7 o. a8 E: _) v
就在几天前,比特币[BTC]上涨至 112,000 美元的历史新高。* F+ }; A7 x* J7 }2 e0 c3 l
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通常,当价值上涨时,持有者和投资者往往会抛售获利。例如,当 BTC 在 2024 年首次达到 10 万美元时,获利回吐现象激增,获利回吐金额达到 21 亿美元。3 a/ f2 {5 T- a% z6 [' J G1 l
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然而这一次,行为发生了变化。
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即使有数十亿美元的未实现收益,投资者仍坚持持有
+ o3 h' A3 k# F: r* F尽管近期价格上涨,但持币者和投资者的获利回吐并不像前几次周期那样频繁。事实上,无论是鲸鱼用户还是散户,获利回吐的意愿都下降了。
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" d$ I: Z- I3 k; T3 ~" o9 a- N根据CryptoQuant分析师,实现利润为 104,000 BTC(约合 110 亿美元)。
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, t! P" E: }: E2 k0 S1 {: t9 m虽然这看起来似乎是一个相当大的数字,但之前的周期记录的比特币数量要高得多。目前的水平距离35万BTC的临界阈值仍然相当远。- @, X n* |" D! P# j' ^# t9 I& U2 z
! E5 E$ b1 M$ }1 x/ e事实上,在亮出历史性红旗之前,BTC 还有 246,000 BTC 的已实现利润空间。
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' Y( `, \( R( G, {& j0 o; ^自然,这种差距表明投资者正在持有他们的货币而不是趁势抛售。( k1 t4 f* {" }" n% @
# n% N5 u; Y4 ~$ WSOPR 下跌证实了 BTC 情绪的转变
! D. H" c; J9 m" a: J支持这一论点的是支出产出利润率(SOPR)。" F! g* r& B8 s5 ~5 v3 o6 Q Y
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尽管价格达到 112,000 美元,该指标已连续五天下跌。
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即使价格创下历史新高,SOPR 也会下降,这表明持有者虽然获利,但拒绝出售。% Q* V$ O# i7 N* X! L# P! u
" p: _. I& C5 K' `! N鲸鱼交易者和散户交易者的获利回吐行为同样出现下降。
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% q7 m. Z4 e6 ^7 R+ ~根据 CryptoQuant 的数据,鲸鱼仍在持有,其活动仍处于中立区域内。
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# Y! y9 h& c2 {6 V在上一轮上涨期间,鲸鱼流入交易所的资金超过 10 亿美元。而今天呢?只有 3 亿美元。; |" e" G* P/ q# D; u6 h( S1 i
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这是一个显著的低位,因为BTC正经历着有利的市场行情,并已进入发现阶段。因此,大户持有者仍在持有仓位,等待进一步上涨,然后再加大抛售力度。 _8 U: g- w& w' ]" q# n# W
0 A8 U( ?9 x% @5 G% F# O; E6 m! ~消费量和交易流量强化了这一情况
8 Q: |# w% a Y* K虽然价格[飙升]意味着更高的获利回吐活动,但情况已经发生了重大变化。8 y/ l' o3 ]# p
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本轮周期投资者表现有所不同,他们没有抛售以获利了结,这表明信心增强。因此,与上一轮周期相比,本轮价格上涨期间按年龄段划分的总支出减少了11亿美元。
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与此同时,Exchange Netflow 总体仍为负值。
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投资者提取的 BTC 数量大于存入的数量,这表明增持量大于分配量。
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+ R; X" `3 a1 c' B5 w/ d8 n" |1 b比特币的下一步是什么?
- Q) P8 M! K/ p6 H5 P. ~" p# E简而言之,市场参与者依然看涨,并预期价格将进一步上涨。因此,当前的市场状况为BTC带来更多上涨空间。
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4 E: i: T& ]' ^如果这种情绪持续下去,BTC 将再次回升至 10 万美元。+ y+ Z6 O+ |+ T3 \- i! k
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然而,如果关税谈判继续下去,BTC 已跌至 106,000 美元的低点,我们可能会看到另一次盘整,低点为 104,000 美元。/ R( Z' h3 K8 t6 ?9 N
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大户都不卖?牛市稳稳的!6 T, H2 _) L0 V# X/ T5 q0 H
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