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[lastpost] => 2778319 狗狗币面临严峻考验，长期持有者纷纷离场，技术信号转为看跌（转） 1762132462 sunnyclare001
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本周一，全球资产都在暴涨，美股、黄金全部创历史新高。与此形成鲜明对比的是，加密货币市场全线溃败，比特币下跌约2.2%。第二大加密货币以太坊暴跌超9%， 跌破4100美元，短短24小时内引发17亿美元合约爆仓。这场暴跌暴露了加密货币市场在全球流动性重新分配过程中的脆弱性。曾经与黄金亦步亦趋的“电子黄金”，此刻正经历着与传统避险资产分道扬镳的考验。) e G+ [7 l: x, e4 u9 m/ m
黄金的强势得益于多重利好共振。美联储9月17日宣布降息25个基点。点阵图显示年底前可能还将降息50个基点，低利率环境降低了持有黄金的机会成本，使黄金吸引力大增。
0 k9 A4 Q$ ?/ q7 z! z7 G至于美股，更是全球投资者的信仰了，特别是英伟达宣布投资OPEN AI，以前是左手倒右手，现在已经进入到自己给自己下单的庞氏骗局阶段了。- g7 [; c) N% }4 y% S
我认为，这背后是流动性的争夺，市场虽然在狂欢，但是流动性明显减少了，而比特币市场正面临流动性结构性转变。数据显示，72%的比特币供应被归类为不流动状态。
2 P9 ~/ B- S: f这种流动性紧缩使得市场深度变得异常脆弱。历史数据表明，当卖方流动性达到3000枚BTC时，市场往往出现显著回调。
: _6 ]( f9 [+ K Q1 D: j/ q而美联储降息后，美国的隔夜逆回购利率，反而上涨。隔夜逆回购（ON RRP）是美联储实施货币政策的重要工具之一。你可以把它理解为货币市场的“地板利率”：金融机构（如货币市场基金）可以将多余的现金以这个利率隔夜存放在美联储，从而获得一个无风险的收益下限。
) R. K8 J9 S$ c. h6 d这背后，主席鲍威尔和多位官员随后的讲话都偏向谨慎，并未释放强烈的持续快速降息信号，只是股市和贵金属市场完全无视这种表态，但是资金利率反应了真实的情况。& Y3 y' h. v: u, f& E
另外就是，市场存在对通胀黏性的担忧，如果通胀反弹，可能延缓美联储未来的降息步伐。个人预计，下个月美国的CPI非常可能达到3%或者以上，这就意味着美国重新回到通货膨胀区间了。
, t! V& i) R- Z; H x9 j1 V现在市场的流动性，已经不足以驱动一切资产价格上涨了。
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