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[lastpost] => 2806178 迈克·诺沃格拉茨:比特币和山寨币100倍加密货币回报的时代已经结束(转) 1770912708 小钱儿
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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。
! t( w2 G- N( ^8 ?% q自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。
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4 p) B* h( G9 r& s* ]自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。
% ^ K, e2 r3 ~" W# Z L$ }" c- c+ g, B, l
阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。
! Y1 a6 F; W* Y5 a* ^4 c9 z0 w" K, S2 G* ^, n
2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。% _9 R0 ~" E: v- S- C% J+ F
1 a3 b' K; \6 O那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?8 y7 G; s! s6 R+ z
- s( A9 u+ M' T4 e* z: o观察ETF和鲸鱼活动
- }( r1 {- P# C+ r* U% L' ~分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。
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上周降至1300 BTC。
4 Q, P n2 a% A1 ]) R1 r, F( j5 V3 g$ ], E, h
从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。
/ G+ P% o0 x: G Q* x4 a8 b$ T& E5 F9 ~& V- \
鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。
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鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。: G2 l8 f* c# Y6 E
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Santiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。4 N8 W% w+ m$ O: }5 D
3 E& ?2 i; A6 H {( |% E尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。4 z: ^ b6 p1 K. o0 ~- W* f
/ q0 m" b" X7 S比特币会突破其区间吗?
, |0 l' E- Y/ w8 J9 u8 _随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。9 p2 S5 s& l2 K$ y3 x
, C5 y- Z6 w9 M: }* o3 a根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。2 B. l7 V- ], R7 z+ A
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因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。
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技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。
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位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。5 G" U, E P$ n
然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。/ n" @+ R) R% V) ?6 a4 y
' N S6 f7 t* f6 w* i根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。
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