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[lastpost] => 2806177 高盛确认持有价值 1.53 亿美元的 XRP(转) 1772038390 垂钓园
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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。$ d8 _! c8 U; W" s) m
自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。
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自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。8 }9 a2 g2 E9 k3 _* R
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阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。0 U1 D9 `: ?5 _' O( g" t- C
. C% Q1 x4 M% R9 g/ E2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。6 _$ H" W Y2 c/ d
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那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?: D! c4 t, v0 I' G" j
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观察ETF和鲸鱼活动2 k7 v# L3 ~ _; l3 g6 i5 F: {
分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。/ ~) J1 s4 L) t- ]
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上周降至1300 BTC。
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从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。5 _9 \- \1 O- k8 x
& y% x. u) l, F# `; }鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。
/ {5 G4 p) w" \; b! a0 G! G3 i6 ~& {. {5 w# d2 k9 S% U
鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。
1 G0 e: ~. k# O6 q
2 f/ z+ Z+ z9 j2 sSantiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。
; t3 e* Y. Z; E4 o7 m! `
1 r1 g3 Q+ M6 h: j: x尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。
$ e5 h2 p1 o' S" U4 O; }# p6 K% d8 f' H' k7 u3 G
比特币会突破其区间吗?5 [! F! F, N/ z( ~0 T* y# S3 Y* Z
随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。" i+ o( D# ]( {; a3 I& T# _
# [9 {9 N) s- {: h
根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。
2 s3 H: S* h( _; C
( f, m( Z1 _' U F7 s! R因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。4 q$ n* ]6 j, q H! Y# H/ D' ^
6 [# y" T9 V' P) j! s- o技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。
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位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。. J' h9 K4 S+ o! }) g) G* M
然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。: f" z& B3 N. r7 O' M/ ^& T7 Y* L, E
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根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。
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