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本帖为抢楼帖，欢迎抢楼!
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几率这个总是平等的 但是还是这次出了，下次粗的概率就是会小了很多 |
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% O9 v3 ?0 J. h4 A有时候靠几率也是会害死人的 |
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1/2概率游戏在理论上讲输赢都应该是50对50，输赢各半的结果，但是玩起来却明显不是那回事。3 a9 v% @0 g& I; x( V2 m3 C
8 j5 N. M& c: K这个我来告诉你吧。。50对50，输赢是对半，但是我们真正玩起来，许许多多的人却感觉是输的多。。
6 d" c4 }" d7 ^1 j7 K) g/ ]* D2 u& f9 i/ `4 Q, g
为什么？/ I" j% [& T5 X0 |9 {
; K% l9 d M, w( B1 e* q" R0 [1、因为下注的次数太多了（任何人都逃不过5050）。如果只玩一把肯定是5050。' T# P: J% C3 [2 ~/ [- N
2、因为资金问题。如果资金一样，也可能是5050。
: B& _" v/ e1 D# p' Q 假如你只有最后一个码了，而你打的是平注。。每一把输赢都是50比50。9 @4 Z' }/ U% n9 c# G
第一把赢，你有两个码，平注，无限继续下去的话，你输光的概率是1/4
" Y( A( [0 @9 ]/ F 第一把输，你没有了。* ~& O/ Y$ [% _( m+ I X( @
第二把赢，你有三个码，平注，无限继续下去的话，你输光的概率是1/8。
) q7 m, ^+ ^* M: S 第二把输赢，你还可以继续。。' z7 Z D( |5 v* v+ g' {
…………无限下去。
# f7 A& c9 Q+ r4 h8 z+ H; {清袋的概念，不是50比50。。而是1/2+1/4+1/8+1/16+1/32……( t0 x. p, Y! e; f; S
P- E5 u3 I2 O+ d是多少你自己算吧。。这还不算抽水呢。。/ i: c2 m6 E, e3 X6 o
' k0 h& e$ D4 A/ P3 G7 {
这就是总是输的原因。。
% \" [1 r2 _9 W& n! F0 ?" m: a+ f) m9 E; Z$ K
为什么我还要继续玩下去呢？？
9 c) j5 q3 ^. ]8 m8 V) D2 o0 Q5 _- P/ P/ G: G# \) E7 `" b
1、我觉得可以打偏差。
3 H$ M; T' v! p! k7 _+ \2、存送1%，返水1%，加上我只想取入场的1%。我觉得我应该就是DC。。& u0 O7 K1 x! ?$ ]5 F) x
0 f8 X, n$ V2 G4 O3 z% Y, p& g* V) f
但是，这，，，只是理论，实践考虑的因素更多。。
( y( u% G+ j; |* A& O
) X+ A0 z$ u2 R, @7 S% p4 X* `$ A人的心态不可控，人的行为不可控，人的习惯不可控。。 |
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大家说的50对50指的是每次下注时的选择，所以我们每次下注都要做一次选择，运气不好的话，就会连续选择错误，也就是连黑了 |
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5050 的说法是不对的，在正常的不作弊的情况下，庄家还有抽水的比例呀。 |
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菠菜的公平之处在于机率各占一半，庄家之所以占优当然是因为抽水了，反复的抽水导致玩家大部分都输钱。 |
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