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[lastpost] => 2691535 比特币在9.1万美元后面临调整——但投资者应持观望态度（转） 1731767036 爱美的女人
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上周美股出现两个交易日的大跌行情，道琼斯直接从33000跌到了31000上方，几乎回吐了自5月23日至6月初的全部涨幅，纳斯达克和标普500指数同样大跌，从量价关系来看，道琼斯和标普500指数呈现出放量下跌且直接跳空低开低走的杀跌走势，美元指数更是延续反弹直逼105的历史高点。 ' I3 d9 O- f3 t% z
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美股之所以出现大幅杀跌，主要缘于美国通胀数据超出预期，数据显示美国通胀再创40年新高，令物价上涨可能见顶的希望破灭。受此利空因素影响，加密货币整体也出现了更广泛的回落。
/ }3 K) J" i1 d0 Q) c加密货币交易平台Luno的企业发展和国际副总裁Vijay Ayyar表示，可能看到当前的看跌情绪持续到下周，如果回顾之前的熊市，比特币通常会下跌80%以上，山寨币跌幅通常超过90%。如果情况继续，接下来一两个月比特币价格将低得多。 ( A7 ^' ?* i) q( a& [7 o
机构分析师Joanna Ossinger：现在看起来加密货币的状况很差。对于已经在疲于应对美联储加息和风险资产抛售的代币而言，火热的美国通胀数据只是雪上加霜。比特币已经连续第七天下跌，并且已突破了最近的下跌区间。这使得比特币可能下探200周移动平均线，即22300美元左右，甚至2017年高点19511美元。 8 i2 W* k M+ G& \
在我看来，如下图所示，周线级别上，btc已经有效失守了30000点的宽幅震荡下沿支撑，并伴有成交量的明显放大现象，技术指标macd同样未出现止跌的金叉信号，这都表明本轮杀跌行情有望得以延续，市场整体上都是呈现看空的情绪，交易的风险也有所进一步加大。今日恐慌与贪婪指数为11（昨日为14），恐慌程度进一步加深，等级仍为极度恐慌。
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尽管加密市场持续杀跌，目前还未出现熊市何时可能结束的迹象和信号，不过著名加密货币分析师本杰明·考恩(Benjamin Cowen)评论了他对替代币与比特币在当前熊市中的表现的预期。熊市将使你们中的许多人的BTC最大化。Cown还认为，目前 BTC 的市值占比将在今年晚些时候增加到 60%。据CoinMarketCap最新数据显示，当前比特币市值占比为47.3%，以太坊市值占比为15.7%。
( J0 b6 m/ i9 y" i* ?0 g; B另外，根据普华永道 (PwC) 的第四次年度全球加密对冲基金报告，89 家对冲基金参与了 2022 年第一季度进行的一项调查。研究显示，38% 的传统对冲基金已经投资于加密货币，高于一年前的 21%。此外，目前投资于数字资产的受访实体中有三分之二希望在 2022 年底之前增加其配置。 不参与此类投资的传统对冲基金经理从去年的 79% 降至 62%。与此同时，29% 的未购买数字资产的人要么正在制定投资计划，要么处于投资计划的后期阶段。另一方面，普华永道的报告指出，全球专业加密对冲基金的估计数量为 300 家，并补充说在过去两年中以加速的速度创建了新实体。 加密对冲基金交易量最大的数字资产是比特币，其次是以太坊，其次是 Solana、Polkadot、Terra 和 Avalanche。 来源：金色财经 |
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