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[lastpost] => 2654081 据比推数据,ETH现报3802.49美元,10分钟涨幅为0.02%,突破3800美元关口,价格波动较大,请谨慎交易,控制风险。 1717301820 比推快讯
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基本信息
斐波纳契回撤理论,是股票上也常用到的经典理论之一,是建立在两个端点间的趋势线。斐波纳契回撤理论是斐波那契 [1] Leonardo Fibonacci发现的数字逻辑推论,即每一个随后的数据是前两个数字的总和:1、1、2、3、5、8、13、21、34、55、89、144等等。
每个数据约等于前一个的1.618倍,且每个前一数据相对于后一数据的0.618。此工具是运用决定的趋势线上两点来创建的。然后画出9条水平线,斐波纳契水平:0.0%,23.6%,38.2%,50%,61.8%,100%,161.8%,261.8%和 423.6%与趋势线交叉。
怎么分析,及应用
连接阶段性的高点和低点,拖动方向,时间点从前往后拖动。以空头行情为例,起点从高点拖动到一个阶段性的低点。
如下图所示,从高点向低点拖动。
参数详解
个人推荐只看3个参数点位:0.38(38%),0.5(50%),0.618(61.8%)。
反弹到38.2%是一个弱回调,后市可能还有一波强力的回调。
如果从低反弹到了50%线,表示下跌趋势中的正常回调。
如果回调超过61.8%说明趋势有可能反转。
操作上,下跌趋势中,在跌破38.2%的位置可以尝试开空,在突破61.8%可尝试开多。
案例分析
案例1(上升趋势中的下跌分析,ETH-4小时线)
起点(高点)2021-01-10, ETH:1348 终点(低点)2021-01-11, ETH: 914.25
在2021-01-14,ETH反弹到1182,突破了61.8%。一波趋势在2021-01-19突破新高达到1436。
案例2(上升趋势中的下跌分析,ETH-4小时线。)
起点(高点)2021-01-19, ETH:1437
终点(低点)2021-01-22, ETH: 1046
在2021-01-24,ETH反弹到1287,突破了61.8%。在2021-01-27,2021-01-28试探回踩了50%线后,一路上扬连连破新高。
案例3(上升趋势中的下跌分析,ETH-4小时线。)
起点(高点)2021-01-20, ETH:2040
终点(低点)2021-01-28, ETH: 1300
在2021-03-08,ETH反弹到1760,突破了61.8%。在2021-03-14号突破1950失败,下路下扬跌到1543,刚好守住38.2%线。之后在2021-03-21再次突破后61.8%,一路上扬破新高。
这次案例,并非向前两次那样突破后一路上扬,最终还跌到了38.2%线。但最终守住,才有了后面了再次暴涨。所以在用斐波那契回撤分析时,可以理解为在多空双方博弈中,0.618,0.5,0.382关键点位争夺区间。谁突破了就是谁强,在操作上。可按突破0.618做多,跌破0.618止损。再次突破0.618则做多,即使判断失败,亏损也不会太大。
上升趋势中的下跌总结
上升趋势中,即使刚突破后0.618,再后面几个周期,有大概率还会再次回踩0.618,如果已做多回踩到0.618可平仓,等再次突破0.618,再次进场会更加安全。
总结
斐波那契回撤只是技术参考指标之一,在分析2021年牛市的K线图时,有些连续行情连回调都没有,如果一直等待斐波那契回撤发出信号,可能就要错失很多机会。所以技术分析可以多样化,有好的入场信号就应该进场,有不好的信号就应该离场。
来源:金色财经 |
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