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[1757] => 第三方支付
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[lastpost] => 2769501 亚洲双城记：香港与新加坡的RWA赛道角逐（转） 1758973289 mattf
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 4165 小时
本月在线: 14 小时
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主要观点如下：
0 W% g) p+ ?- H: j7 `- 在 2017-2018 年间，大部分的项目都是通过融资 ETH 进行的，这使得 ETH 的流通量大幅度减少，因此价值螺旋上升。但是，随着熊市的来临，项目方不得不变卖 ETH 以支付各种费用，这导致了 ETH 的价格螺旋下降
- 在 2020-2022 年期间，人们开始更加实际，融资开始更多地依赖于稳定币，以避免在市场波动中损失
- 从 2020 年到 2022 年 Q3，已公开的总融资额约为 745 亿美元。在同一时期，主要稳定币（USDT、USDC、BUSD）的市值总和为 1341 亿美元。$ A. i6 _# N& c1 m* i V6 [
项目方手中的大量稳定币将对市场产生两个主要影响：
, m: m1 L/ y% o8 Z/ S1 u一是不再需要变卖 ETH 以支付运营费用，所以 ETH 不会像上一轮熊市那样一直阴跌
0 K r! D; @9 O# a3 t ]二是项目方需要卖出 U 来支付运营费用，这将间接地减少流通中的 U，使流动性变差 C8 V( Z0 y( @# a* L1 P
结论就是：
! y. u6 \' |2 F M: ?! U# ^USDT 会一直慢慢流出，流动性会越来越恶化，直到美联储降息。币圈市值本质上是杠杆抬起来的，当最底层的流动性持续变差的时候，没有任何数字货币能够独善其身。
! [7 w1 F+ Z+ Z: {关注整体市场稳定币总量，总量在上涨就有牛市的基础，在下跌就是熊市无疑。; S$ i' n2 D% E S
现在来回顾一下，顺便推演未来走向：. J& n) m' I1 D) F
- USDC 上半年的暴雷导致市值从 460 亿暴跌至 260 亿美元
- BUSD 上半年的暴雷导致市值从 170 亿暴跌至 40 亿美元
- 然而 USDT 市值从 810 亿美元涨至 830 亿美元
- 稳定币总市值从 1820 亿美元暴跌至 1220 亿美元，少了 600 亿美元
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