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[虚拟币交流]
比特币暴涨只等现货ETF通过？彭博：三大利好正在发酵（转载）
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比特币ETF何时能够获得批准的时程备受市场关注，根据彭博社的统计，美国证券交易
* V) u/ R7 v; E7 h9 j. ?委员会(SEC)需要在9月1日之前针对Bitwise比特币ETP信托基金做出决定，但是SEC同样可以先选择延迟，而来自* @8 ^3 o$ Q% s B
BlackRock、VanEck、WisdomTree和Invesco的申请决定也在一天之后展开。 v9 V$ t& E+ K+ i& l! t1 I2 G1 S
通常来说，当比特币现货ETF在《联邦公报》上发布后便会进入公开评论期，SEC通常会在45天内作出初步决定，# h5 t% r) {, n$ U4 a1 h
批准或拒绝该申请，届时若未做出裁决则再延45天，第二次仍未有结果则再延90天，最久必须在公开评论期开始' z" L9 z) O* p6 S9 i
后240天做出裁决。
, T3 m+ J" D; T2 N分析师：预料之内会被推迟
# ~/ e- w: O0 a& O4 n# _) l+ M彭博ETF分析师James Seyffart，曾经预测灰度GBTC转现货ETF的判决最早可能在8月15日出炉，如今这个预测也8 B p* o4 R" X$ ^1 ~ y3 H7 b
变为「理论上的日期」，目前并没有传出任何更新，他表示「这些决定都会被延迟是预料之内」，而据灰度官方
9 V/ a8 P6 T; c& P% F$ Z9 B/ s在7月底的发文，他们则是预测法院可能在今年秋季作出判决。专注于数字资产的机构平台FRNT Financial的执行$ K- p9 w5 ~/ N4 ?& V+ D
长Stephane Ouellette则在彭博社采访时表示：ETF申请的基本情况是，管理机构将继续使用多年来的所有权力5 i- {8 i7 t5 ?7 v1 g5 C, A# V
来推迟决定，即使这些产品最终获得批准，在第一次获得批准的情况下，看到它们获得批准还是会非常令人惊
8 _1 d. U: B- L% @ w+ f- W讶。
: X: e% K6 I1 \事实上，女股神Cathie Wood早在8月上旬就发表看法，认为SEC通过现货ETF是迟早的事，且为了帮助平衡竞争
4 n9 t- N8 d( W9 j& w6 R环境，届时可能会一次同时批准多家公司的申请;而最关键的时间点，她预期会是落在灰度赢得与SEC的诉讼，成
' x- C: V! q1 Q$ Z$ g功将GBTC向比特币现货ETF转型之后。7 A7 k2 x: x8 f- Q/ y
三大利好消息酝酿
& @7 ^8 |1 h$ F0 L# L/ ~2 q市场普遍认为SEC可能对比特币ETF的立场有所软化的潜在积极信号主要有三个：
( F- m9 r6 b m9 Q0 b+ S) D$ lGBTC负溢价率缩窄3 r: x- H% i* ~; k% R( K& N
最受市场瞩目的GBTC转比特币现货ETF的预测其实可以从GBTC的负溢价率来看，GBTC自从2021年2月以后就持! v& ~* M3 ?+ [5 y0 e
续呈现「负溢价」，并在去年底比特币大跌的时候一度逼近-50%。不过随着市场回温以及GBTC转型成现货ETF可 C* g6 E$ }& W/ F
能性的上升，负溢价正持续减少中。据Ychart数据，截至上周五(18日)GBTC的负溢价已来到约-25%。9 o- z; S2 e2 W# Z m5 i
杠杆型比特币期货ETF已上线1 d& U' k3 f! M$ _' P# Q0 A* O1 S; Q: C! o
值得一提的是，ETF发行商Volatility Shares早在6月27日上线杠杆型比特币ETF，其中「2倍杠杆」意味着用户只6 I, _: D& y8 F- s/ X
要投入比特币价值的一半就可以放大成一枚的比特币，自亮相以来，以吸引超过2000万美元的资金投入。; g+ [. N7 Z- k( h3 ?) {
多档以太坊期货ETF提交申请
! n' ]. |$ m6 }+ i- n$ D不只是比特币的相关金融产品展开新的进度，Volatility Shares也在7月28日向SEC提交以太坊期货ETF申请，随后: u" G- H2 `% p$ r' H+ m$ N, E
多家美国基金管理公司也纷纷提出以太坊期货ETF申请，迄今有高达16档以太坊期货ETF正等待SEC的审查，虽然
: ~1 Q6 z& @% D' N9 e/ a! x5 w$ l5 V$ i知情人士强调，以太坊期货ETF是否能推出，尚未得到保证，但也被认为是一大利好消息。
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