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[lastpost] => 2771221 比特币ETF引发稀缺性炒作,重现黄金在上世纪70年代的上涨(转) 1759587271 小梦
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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。* Z2 d d0 x5 L7 g/ _" E9 ~' Z5 y
自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。8 B3 E% {* L) Y1 d: _
3 q; z0 S" i K( H自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。
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2 s' O4 l* u- B0 m9 T$ z; c阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。+ C/ q; W5 x. k: W
5 s* D+ u" J6 ]$ W# J, w$ {
2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。
: l3 \8 w" k9 o+ ?& Z7 b
m7 x4 S0 D, C那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?
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观察ETF和鲸鱼活动
2 Z$ {3 q @% M& |7 ]分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。
9 B1 X5 u, t8 n8 o4 s% l- p1 B! Y
. R; ?) u- \5 \上周降至1300 BTC。/ W' I6 ]9 t: e8 Q* D6 U" {+ j1 U3 r
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从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。2 `3 P4 j# ?, T# O8 `0 q: B; k; H
; k4 p* l6 a, r鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。% ~1 I$ }5 x1 a8 Y' z) O
/ D7 }2 O+ P, W/ c% F- I2 }5 W5 }0 @鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。( e; c4 O7 L5 Y8 V
( V$ ]4 P4 ]+ d9 _0 ]& nSantiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。# A* J2 W. S: o
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尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。! } [5 _2 T0 l d0 p5 H
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比特币会突破其区间吗?
2 s5 \- o# o* B随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。
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" H; ?7 v( D: ]' n# T: \根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。 E/ Z* z# Q& Y5 ]2 m j
+ e; ^& J0 o1 H, x/ j) S) N
因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。. o: X, i; f2 s, }2 f. R' z
v# ?0 M, @7 o! D技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。
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P- e6 j8 a3 N位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。2 y2 P& a/ t& C! m
然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。
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根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。
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