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[lastpost] => 2768743 从对立到共存?德银预测:黄金与比特币未来或同列央行储备 1758786682 rainwang
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币价格分析:在6.9万美元被拒绝后,BTC获得新ATH的机会有多大?(转)
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在最近的牛市中,比特币的价格尚未达到历史新高,因为卖家正在捍卫他们的最后一道防线。& P3 g% l8 Z! w/ Z1 `
, n( X2 p( x6 p. P1 [技术分析+ T; e% S- e& p
By埃德里斯·德拉赫希(TradingRage)
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$ T8 S0 N. E6 ^4 b每日图表
5 F3 D$ b6 ^8 g7 ?2 L; t在日线图上,该资产最近反弹至6.4万美元水平和200天移动平均线之上,位于同一区域附近。这一上升趋势大大提高了比特币很快创下历史新高的可能性。
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然而,卖家很好地捍卫了6.9万美元的阻力位,因为价格正在下跌。如果出现大幅回调,可以重新测试200天移动平均线。
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4小时图表
" d( R$ |. m% [+ T% K1 G$ D基于价格走势和动量分析,4小时图显示了明显的看跌信号。市场最近在6.9万美元的关键阻力区形成了一个上升的楔形。然而,RSI与最近的价格高点显示出明显的看跌背离。. J6 e9 G4 g! y K6 X+ k9 K
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这导致了模式的崩溃,这是一个典型的看跌反转信号。RSI也显示低于50%的值,这表明动量在4小时内看跌。然而,由于整体市场结构仍然看涨,这一举措很可能只是暂时的调整。
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情绪分析
9 K- S; e& h" v# J- qBy埃德里斯·德拉赫希(TradingRage)7 X- h6 N2 G( q: b1 p+ O
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比特币芝加哥商品交易所期权未平仓合约(叠加)
5 h9 H2 S7 C% x$ V* K! O+ }在比特币最近的价格上涨中,投资者越来越乐观地认为,不久将出现新的历史新高和长期反弹。然而,这种乐观情绪有可能导致市场下跌。" A( _* Y/ k) S) j/ N0 n4 J
. ~, o( x) l$ k" x: }0 w. K此图表显示了比特币芝加哥商品交易所期权未平仓合约(堆叠),它衡量了未平仓期权头寸的数量,包括看涨期权和看跌期权。显然,与牛市早期和接近市场底部的水平相比,期权未平仓合约(OI)总额显著下降,在牛市早期和市场底部,看涨期权和看跌期权都堆积得更重。; `/ s1 ~3 U! E. q( O9 C
: j) c5 N t( Y J% z0 s' [( hOI的下降表明,投资者对比特币价格走势的不确定性减少了,导致他们采取了更具方向性的头寸,减少了通过期权进行对冲的需要。与此同时,对芝加哥商品交易所期货的开放兴趣日益增加,表明投资者对这一趋势越来越有信心,愿意采取更多杠杆头寸并承担更大的风险。不用说,杠杆是一把双刃剑。
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