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[lastpost] => 2750455 比特币巨震，近20万人爆仓！特朗普，最新签署！（转） 1752920547 jackcool1011
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7 G) w& L% \/ Y# J6 N) a% P2 x) Q 中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称，加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性，自诞生以来成长迅速，并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大，. }% t% A2 Y% S# i9 `+ K; r1 U) U" d
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形成类似黄金的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高，加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内，预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于
" ~. I4 u# K2 V* Z9 z* t
4 n) R9 j, H. a. { a1 P逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币，但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松，但需等待贸易、外交政0 X" w. a8 A7 h% {
8 H1 S* E0 R8 W策的确定性。6 d ?3 N ?6 v; f
5 E: }# l' h6 J: K. v/ v 中信证券主要观点如下：
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$ ^9 c7 M/ M1 l 加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币，具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。
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自其诞生以来，市场成长迅速，例如比特币呈指数型增长。2 Y/ Z2 q1 M# Q. B
% r! P3 U$ e ^ @) r v* m 近期加密货币表现不佳，并未体现出避险属性。# F) f R B) U6 y! L2 T7 W
0 N) a" ?! C/ C" m3 X
2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨，分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高；以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现
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- k7 E& k2 K L ~# L不佳，与黄金走势背离，并未体现出避险属性。
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6 ]- I' Y! \; T* f/ @& E 加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。3 [! h' a4 d$ Z; |' H) q, w8 n
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从规模来看，加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场，增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看，两者都是集中度较高，且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明，均有利于价格的长期上行。
! {" g/ E/ k: U) J0 d8 o( s3 |5 w+ `: Y6 l; n. a
加密货币开始出现刚性需求，形成与黄金类似的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。7 _0 ^7 A9 s, W8 K$ B( ` t
! i0 z3 r' I+ K. X5 X' Q 由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势，形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”，与黄金一样形成了刚需，以确保其难以出现泡沫
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3 }2 y& W4 l; J& p- `0 Y破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。# ~9 k) S2 O3 G; V. [
6 \. s1 \7 n5 t) X8 P 短期内，加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金，因此表现背离。
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9 e6 B1 D" V t1 {9 f! ^1 q7 w 我们认为根本的原因是1）社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2）由于加密货币高成长性，边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内，加密货币避险属性和投机属性7 k [* @5 w! O4 j
/ G9 Z" B0 k" K* g% h共存，后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。; S* Q0 {- }/ O# a" `
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长期来看，加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间，最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化，驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。: l: ?$ b, G2 Z0 S* a* e
( P" Z/ }9 b5 N' ~5 ~ 2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续，预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上，黄金和加密货币的货币属性，都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣/ ^9 p: k7 e6 M/ d4 _- x+ Q# G- w
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势，比特币不必然是未来的黄金，但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此，我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间，比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。! B! L1 L" e* |, J
3 T6 P' u' V- W) w2 Y+ D+ P2 ?: _ 展望未来四年，比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼，但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。/ e+ G: p$ m/ ^3 x8 ?0 X/ c3 V
' N. J" b$ n! @+ ^; \ 本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政
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1 N6 G" L9 J8 p8 N; z策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。: U# W1 @) j! [0 a# _
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风险因素：
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1 j7 |0 ?/ Y4 q4 N5 Q' f 特朗普ZF政策超预期；美国联邦债务问题超预期；美联储货币政策宽松不及预期；地缘ZZ风险。4 S* f) _# n$ W. H7 Q
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