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[lastpost] => 2758022 加密货币高位回调: 总市值回落至3.9万亿美元 以太坊领跌(转) 1755674003 whywhy
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当前离线
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你知道吗? Coinbase Custody(而非贝莱德)持有 IBIT 中 BTC 的私钥,将客户资产安全地离线存储,并由商业保险提供支持。* B' V/ M S$ o/ J6 ?
3 R9 W# o5 u2 h" D7 C2.为什么贝莱德在 2025 年大举押注比特币?
. }9 I$ S1 \) V. z5 _贝莱德的大规模配置背后,是其战略视角的转变:它已将比特币视为长期、多元化投资组合中的合法组成部分。
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7 {( M, r& }2 G8 K5 O贝莱德的比特币战略3 Y3 u+ G, n% s+ m) w
贝莱德的内部论点是:接受比特币的波动性,换取其潜在的上行空间。通过 IBIT(iShares Bitcoin Trust),他们押注更广泛的采用将逐步稳定这一资产,改善价格发现、提升流动性并缩小买卖价差。. Z' E5 f, K% E& A
/ S% u6 c# q' R0 d* U在他们看来,比特币是对货币演化与数字资产基础设施的长期押注。这种来自全球最大资产管理公司的理念,向同行释放了强烈信号。它将机构对比特币的讨论从“是否要参与”转变为“应该配置多少”。& T% q' G3 K, L9 D
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机构积累比特币的投资逻辑
; r- l) m4 Y( a9 c/ s9 I贝莱德在 2025 年看好比特币的几个关键因素:
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稀缺性设计:比特币总量上限 2100 万枚,且通过减半机制控制增发,稀缺性与黄金相似,但背靠数字架构。部分估计显示,大量现有比特币已遗失或无法取用,使得实际可流通供应更为紧张。
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美元霸权的替代品:在主权债务膨胀与地缘ZZ碎片化的背景下,比特币的去中心化特性提供了对法币风险的对冲。它被定位为一种中立的储备资产,抵御ZF过度干预与货币操纵。
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数字化转型的一部分:贝莱德将比特币视为宏观趋势的代理指标——从“线下”到“线上”价值体系的转变,涵盖金融、商业乃至财富代际转移。他们认为这一趋势受到人口结构的“超级驱动”,尤其是年轻投资者影响力的上升。
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这些因素组合起来,使比特币拥有传统资产类别无法复制的风险收益特征。贝莱德的表述是:比特币提供“额外的多元化来源”,为其进入主流投资组合提供了有力论据。! e: k" x( o- Z. @
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贝莱德的加密投资组合整合
) Z2 O4 j( j/ h; @: T! X贝莱德主张采取审慎策略:在传统 60/40 股债组合中配置 1%~2% 的比特币。听起来比例不大,但对机构级投资组合而言,足以产生影响,并让保守的资金分配者逐渐接受比特币。' T$ l. R1 P4 S* @* `" w
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他们还将比特币的风险画像与高波动科技股(如“七巨头”)作比较,以展示其在标准投资模型中的合理位置。$ D* Q- o8 M- J9 S2 R/ Z+ D
7 ~+ b5 ]" f* s. s有趣的是,IBIT 内部比特币交易过程中产生的意外副产品(“尘埃”)里,包含了少量其他代币。贝莱德通常会将这些代币单独存放,或捐赠给慈善机构,以避免税务复杂性。& V; Z: s2 w/ a, i3 a2 e1 ]
: W2 ~4 W& U6 i! p1 @& F3.比特币 ETF 的市场影响
# v$ v! w: T4 V8 D贝莱德通过 IBIT 持有超过 3% 的比特币总供应量,这成为比特币在认知、交易与监管层面上的转折点。7 S+ L8 A# `8 K- a# \" f0 K
3 ?6 ]% H* a& f. @# e& ]( C% c比特币历来因波动性著称,这源于固定供应、情绪波动和监管不确定性。过去,因市场流动性较薄,大额交易往往造成剧烈冲击。而随着 IBIT 吸收数十万枚 BTC,问题在于机构资本究竟会稳定市场,还是会进一步加剧市场复杂化。
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ETF 模式的支持者认为,机构投资有助于降低波动性。像贝莱德这样的受监管机构参与后,比特币将变得更具流动性、更透明、更能抵御异常波动。
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贝莱德也明确表示,更广泛的参与能改善价格发现、加深市场流动性,并最终促成更稳定的交易环境。) v, S x b+ Q; v5 }- z3 m, A; N
3 Z% ?* E% O( _9 i6 b但批评者(包括部分学者)警告,大规模机构参与会将传统市场风险带入比特币:如杠杆交易、算法触发的闪崩,以及通过 ETF 流量进行的价格操控。
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换句话说,比特币的金融化可能是用另一种波动(系统性、杠杆驱动风险)替代了原本的散户驱动 FOMO。而且,随着 ETF 影响力增加,比特币可能与其他金融资产的相关性增强,削弱其“非相关性对冲”的价值。" N2 r5 }! f9 I' I
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当前离线
经验:
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策小分:
总在线: 13270 小时
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当前离线
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本月在线: 77 小时
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当前离线
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总在线: 18149 小时
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当前离线
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总在线: 102 小时
本月在线: 13 小时
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贝莱德这下是真敢下注,看来对比特币的信心不是闹着玩的。 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
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总在线: 10208 小时
本月在线: 34 小时
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