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[lastpost] => 2782580 宏观驱动因素、市场情绪转变以及低于 7 万美元的战略入场点（转） 1763515183 jackcool1011
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比特币在本季度早些时候飙升至历史新高后，目前已出现急剧回落，但投资研究巨头伯恩斯坦表示，交易员们对形势的解读是错误的。
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0 \4 V& V k4 x! T# o要点总结：; x" i' H4 _# @& }$ h; T
比特币的下跌被视为周期中期的回调，而不是市场顶部。
* e9 ?- r- f( j/ G( I! ?3 ~) `机构需求正在消化长期持有者的抛售。) Z' V A# r: i
伯恩斯坦认为，此次调整创造了潜在的重新入场机会，而不是预示着经济衰退。% E( R- s7 G+ L8 k
许多人眼中看似重大趋势逆转的开始，在他们看来，更像是多年扩张期内的一次喘息。* ]" K0 Q" r2 @! i- h& `
, }) C. j3 T: S c7 e4 z伯恩斯坦并没有将注意力集中在近期自10月份高点以来的回落上，而是指出所有权结构发生了更广泛的变化。比特币今天，机构持仓不仅持续攀升，而且现货ETF的增长也催生了一种新型买家——他们不会在市场出现任何波动迹象时就惊慌失措。挥发性
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该术语指的是加密货币价格在特定时间段内偏离其平均值的程度。# }% P- L, r a8 h: `; ~
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“>波动性.: U$ q. v2 B, a6 e% M9 P
为什么抛售压力并未摧毁市场7 _. m! Z2 y$ S3 i1 U! [- ]
尽管零售情绪变得紧张，但长期持有者手中的股票供应并未引发……流动性# g/ y" o3 u1 @, ]2 z, c
* m, b7 T8 J* b0 ?$ F能够在不影响价格的情况下，快速将数字货币或代币转换为另一种资产或现金的能力。
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# n4 o, O( a4 X流动性真空。过去半年里，持有超过12个月的卖家抛售了数十万枚比特币。在以往的周期中，这会使市场失去安全保障。但这一次，几乎全部的抛售潮都被吸收了。ETF
' ~+ v. p' M" V) |" Q: A' F# s/ m交易所交易基金9 B' V. h8 A/ p# k* a$ L
% q5 |' \; E9 E) iETF资金流入和企业国库购买。8 c0 _; K9 t# n! ?% ^# \; S
伯恩斯坦认为，这种动态可以防止像早期周期峰值那样出现连锁崩溃。4 ? s7 a6 R, K0 ~5 }
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投资者正在与旧模式的幽灵作斗争
/ v/ P. A5 D: Y u+ u伯恩斯坦表示，引发恐慌的并非新信息，而是似曾相识的感觉。比特币在2013年、2017年和2021年都曾达到峰值，而每一次峰值之后都伴随着残酷的抛售。许多交易员现在确信2025年也必将重蹈覆辙，因此他们提前数月抛售——讽刺的是，这反而让他们所担忧的下跌看起来更加真实。) `$ o+ t2 d+ C% m( P4 B2 S; y/ |
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在伯恩斯坦看来，市场并没有崩盘；它只是对迷信做出了反应。
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战略资产负债表传闻站不住脚
, F' u! w( {; g; {% f- Q* J3 {有传言称，Strategy（前身为MicroStrategy）可能被迫抛售其持有的大量比特币，这加剧了人们的焦虑情绪。伯恩斯坦断然否认了这种说法。杠杆作用
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+ |- y3 @/ f" T6 q& d利用借入资金为投资或项目融资，旨在增加潜在回报的做法。( z: Z$ D8 u+ H0 f% d6 }
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“>杠杆Strategy 的资产负债表与其持有的资产相比规模适中，股息仍然很容易得到保障，管理层继续发出积极积累而不是撤退的信号。
8 @9 t- e9 i- E7 P" k( {在伯恩斯坦看来，有关强制出售的传言是伪装成分析的恐惧。
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更宏观的视角：机构仍在陆续到来1 Y8 E; o0 r% r) o/ G/ q# ?
分析师表示，最重要的指标并非近期的下跌，而是机构持股的持续扩张。比特币ETF目前控制着超过1250亿美元的资产，尽管短期内出现资金流出，但自2024年底以来，机构参与度显著提升。换句话说，如今购买比特币的人群与以往周期中推动市场发展的人群截然不同。
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8 C. B& }* B8 G: I与加密货币相关的股票也呈现出类似的趋势。Coinbase、Robinhood、Figure 和 Circle 等公司均超出季度预期，这表明代币化和稳定币并非投机幻想，而是重要的商业产品。# R, \. ~/ k. M$ ~
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并非高潮——周期中期的停顿
% E) r" @1 S! a/ b/ B- k5 O与其将10月份的价格峰值称为……的顶峰牛市
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; x) ~( ]7 F) \6 \* g以价格上涨为特征的市场阶段。
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牛市伯恩斯坦认为，近期的下跌只是一次短暂的调整。分析师们正在密切关注市场能否在8万美元附近站稳脚跟——这并非牛市与熊市的分界线，而是下一波资金流入的跳板。* r9 A( t7 {& v
结论：伯恩斯坦认为，目前的形势丝毫没有周期性峰值的迹象，反而像是机构投资者推动的长期趋势中的一次调整。
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