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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘0 @/ f: T' Z, v/ A+ b
- n3 W8 Z5 M9 N2 f1 q8 Y. I 平手中水,主队有利
% R$ I; {( z2 h; z2 i, y+ b7 i 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。- k% S- P3 m, k2 G9 U, D9 S6 ?
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
$ i1 g x5 S u: \9 W 英超主队3 Y4 j. n' N+ I! T! n5 X
胜:13场 48%
; h+ m: h: N0 s- B* [ 平:5场 17%& {0 [ e3 |" j+ P- N
负:9场 35%/ X3 Q/ K" H+ ~+ H
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。% s0 `/ W+ Q4 e; n* c2 V
7 P1 T/ p; A5 ~; O1 M 一、初盘阶段) M1 [- Z% J5 }; y: |
具体到水位如下:2 F# U( G: k6 |- `" g- D. N
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
' J1 p7 o) N) @1 O2 S5 x% S# V2 p1 z* X 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负% w! O+ {$ t- O \( a% e- N! |
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负1 O! N3 l+ r8 o4 ~+ q0 u# Y, n
+ Q' k/ V. g; o }
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
1 S4 D" z7 {4 t( c1 x; k- ? 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
, A6 ^3 w8 O4 h% { 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。, N/ y2 ?* s# ^" R" M
3 Y: O7 A4 V8 P& t 二、临场阶段5 h% w$ J& u% j% K8 k# Z7 U) s
' H V, J5 S9 P# E! ?' t2 k
具体到变盘和水位如下:0 `9 M9 q6 B9 ~: r9 K
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
: _* A- |6 _: o5 C+ J* q8 u 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
9 t: B! b. |8 r; U
4 y9 {0 L$ I3 c9 w5 [" F 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。2 \& d4 j2 s* ~" Z" b% e/ Q
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:! M7 g9 [/ G+ O' }, y! M$ D4 q
: Y9 W1 F8 b# Z, B% w! {) m9 @7 W
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
5 H7 X( G9 k$ \3 J# J/ L& ] 初盘:0.82平手1.04
5 n' g) n P) T3 z" q 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
$ @ H5 |, L: v
! [& i6 Y% m$ G/ ?( L% }, j, o 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆! i6 J1 `& C L8 g3 D
初盘:0.76平手1.10
. S8 k+ p# i+ _* { Y0 Y 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
& b; {7 G7 a5 ^( }. s8 @5 m 7 \% J) l p5 t' [: H
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
3 W4 ^- b) Z" s& H* a5 o1 ~- g 初盘:0.82平手1.04, R# u8 l, D- \
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
$ K b3 ?9 W9 d) C, w) K8 e; t
7 v. e. C/ a3 y" X. X/ A 伯恩利2-1西汉姆) p L7 q9 K! v( l0 Y! x7 p
初盘:0.88平手0.98
( W* y: t7 Q j6 n' | 终盘:1.12平/半0.74
. y$ D1 J- S; o& L( v 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
" i5 z8 `3 B' ?& K2 K 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。- y/ f+ T r8 `& }$ x. g# {- W0 |
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
, `7 d! u& @' M) [9 [" D6 U N1 B: s# b2 V8 m! _- p" R# u/ X
三、球队表现
8 @" ~1 N- Q% v# p- V# H
; Z- b) l) A7 d( Y+ f/ f! T 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
7 w7 t6 f1 t% N: `7 V
* s9 I' ~& q0 B. f4 E# \. | 四、投注要点" ~8 S6 D3 h4 D. E
要点1:平手中水、主多不败; c, h( M Z: F, F! c5 M
要点2:平手降盘、走两头
1 i& j( [; ^- @' S& S 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败- _( ]8 s f, f- a9 J) b( o: C# m
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大) I, y, a& ]# M# q' t
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任4 P; C8 x% {; K
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大/ W! `- W4 _* P/ A$ p% s" ~
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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