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. d9 e5 i' ?) X8 Y h; F+ A% h& @
很好的文章,转发给大家看。 [欧赔最优解]5 w* O2 N( j! w6 b0 H9 Z
6 P2 M' _, c1 l$ z
大部分盘口根据即时对比因素的不同,庄家根据自身体系出发,结合欧洲形势,可以得出一个最适合受注的赔率组合,这个组合基本上是庄家“最优”的选择。这是本轮讨论的问题。
7 C( @! w1 x) X! J e1 H6 A有些比赛,经过考量,是无法得出一个最优解的,无论怎样做盘,利润都不大,甚至略亏损,这时的做盘原则就是“两害相衡取其轻”,选择一个相对能减少风险的组合受注。这是下轮讨论的要点。, I+ [0 y( o9 V5 ]7 ~" f
结合举例说明“最优解”思路的具体运用。
7 K# d, X: K) f$ t" r9 o& p' ^, S% K* R; W
[1]
- T# ]# t- T/ l英超第21轮,[6]阿森纳0:0[2]曼联。
% ]3 ]% q9 v% I% r+ V2 C2 k* t威廉:2.5/3.1/2.5。0 m+ K. O! \# s; U
立博:2.25/3.2/2.75。
+ |& I; R5 x5 @; m# [0 A这样的强强对话,如果分胜负的话,欧赔的最优解中,平赔需要得到合适的运用,就是充分使用平赔的分散作用(适合于绝大多数强强对话),现盘两大庄,都没有主动运用平赔思维和手法,主动放弃最优解,已经包含不分胜负的看法。6 P# w9 A0 Y+ O2 Z& g
结合对比形势,具体对比你自备的资料中有。% t. Q9 {1 E# ^: Z0 f; D: V
主胜的开法:; p, U' r' S# i! g; F' _
威廉:2.5/2.9/2.62。* }3 L9 R W) Y( V
你看胜赔一样,都是2.5,与2.5/3.1/2.5,有什么区别?+ q3 O/ k7 Z0 l. h
2.9对于2.5的分散与3.1对于2.5的分散效果是不同的,前者对于胜赔的分散效果更大,这是以后经常讨论到的“微小”差异,欧赔的很多关键点就在这“微小”差异上,对微小要点的理解累积达到质变后就是欧赔层次的上升。
$ z- _' C$ l1 @* ~( p" G# M8 t* l主负:
, q6 q! i& O0 y威廉:2.37/3/2.7。类似赛事:皇马0:3巴萨。思路是营造平胜格局,适当阻碍负赔。+ j9 z; O" a, e; T- t
去年,阿森纳2:4曼联,威廉是:2.2/3/3,左倾幅度更大,是为了更有效营造平胜格局,同时形成负赔的相应阻力,当然这个位置是有阻力但是也不能使得赔付增加太多。
x+ O3 ]5 h1 h% w4 E平局:# n" n3 a D! `9 _4 d$ F
现盘的思路是,威廉:平赔中庸(不清晰明确表达看好平局的观点、但是赔付也不至于庄家难以承受的位置),胜负均衡双向分散。立博:平赔营造小梯度3.2,但是配合拉低了胜赔,就是增大了胜赔的分散力,同时也没有损失负赔的多少分散力,综合起来足够分散3.2的平赔。5 f2 s# G) m$ g! `; C
% E8 S4 j( v+ B* ^
[2]西甲第18轮,[4]维拉0:0[5]皇马
( V# V5 n/ Q( G, }2 [0 J& g威廉:2.3/3.2/2.6。立博:2.5/3.2/2.5。
1 N: L c' u4 H, y8 ?: r维拉由于参加欧冠进入16强增加了广义实力,皇马近况麻麻增加了失利可能,是经典平中庸胜负标准双分的思路。3 H) D8 l" e1 d ?2 F& l
思维与上场一样。
$ s2 A7 W/ C! {. b R9 z/ S8 v1 e: q
[3]
5 y) C$ b0 s* x8 v, ^+ J西甲第17轮,[3]皇马1:2[14]桑坦德。. d; d3 F: Y0 {- h- z0 e4 S
威廉:1.28/4.5/8。
# ~. g/ ^1 H7 x2 Q! \2 d/ [立博:1.33/4/8,变1.3/4/9。
" H5 M. x3 D' G. s主队近况不佳,客队132可以。
# Z8 J8 y& o; p广义实力对比是:人气强队VS中下游球队。5 i. @% U2 W3 Q( a" S7 z, C
主胜最优解:1.22/5/9.5,至多开到1.25/4.5/10。
: B; y+ o) _: P$ O+ F# M现在两家都将胜赔抬高,幅度不小,显然放弃了主胜的选择,则断定主队不胜,至于如何判断是负,有些概念需要逐渐讲解后再分析。# Z2 I' v# N6 H4 Q7 D
主胜的话,如果胜赔一定要开1.28,那么只能采用超低平来配合,才能有效分散“1.28这么高”的胜赔,例如:1.28/4/10,甚至小庄可以开出的1.28/3.95/10.5这样的组合。' k" W' R8 H' x' w, U+ P" \
/ ^( F$ W4 g" ]9 }1 U+ P- U3 n2 C那么,如何才知道,何种组合才是一场对阵的最优解?
0 ?6 I' Z( t8 o8 ~4 C结合我发给的赔率统计表,可以感性认识一下。
# ~: C7 c8 q, B% V! ~% U3 D' [& s. A同时需要一定比赛科学的有步骤的分析的积累,这是真正有价值的积累。' ^' L5 X" ]" ?3 a! p4 W
以后的“赔率框架位置”专讲,会起到定位作用。7 u9 i" Z0 G9 i
& n1 R# u1 H! x6 ]7 J很多时候,寻找判断最优解,不一定要分析出具体位置,分析出相应的营造最优解的思路即可得到很大帮助。$ s( d6 _/ V$ |7 c" Z
5 G& v) C+ T! F. X例如:- D! K1 q) V0 g. L F( D3 l! w/ \
西甲第17轮,[20]贝迪斯3:0[19]阿拉维斯
! t% R- }, E. A5 x6 a! @! ?" i双方战绩均劣,此时威廉1.8/3.25/3.8,分析开平局的思路,显然不能将平赔开这么高,因为无论如何做盘,3.25的平赔都是非常难分散的,连更优解也很难营造。3 _. Q. @0 S$ j( e9 t0 D0 G
所以,首先判断分胜负,结合基本实力,简单分析就是主胜。
# q, V9 o' J9 k s" V& r: R4 H* w& t6 R
欧赔有很多此类很有效的分析思路,当然不是开高就不出开低就出的简单理解。' f7 i8 E' k! l# l' G9 N
当类似思路多了,精准判定一场比赛则是现实可及的,无论场面多么热闹。 |
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