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[体育菠菜心得方法] 博球高手心得总结之一:对赛概率和庄家的总体手段
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1#
   

1、对赛胜负概率其实是赌波的关键,也就是说,比赛日近50场比赛中胜负究竟属于谁是不确定的,但是胜平负的比例却是大体不变的 。依照我个人的统计(注意,不是非常准确,欢迎波友也提供自己的数据。)赛季比赛日的胜平负平均比例为-43%、25%、32%。主场胜平负的平均比例为——54%、33%、13%。

2、如此看来,如果我们平均下注押主场球队,似乎就可以万无一失。但是天下没有免费的午餐。这个比例数字庄家应该比我们还清楚,于是,所谓“让球”就必然出现了。

3、让球其实是让胜平负比例混乱并失去规律的手段。个人统计(再次声明,仅仅为个人统计,失误再所难免)让球后的胜平负比例平均为:34%、9%、57%——9%为走盘。(以上数据采集于英超、意甲、德甲、西甲四大联赛5年所有联赛数据,鉴于法甲的不纯洁,乙级联赛的混乱和人为因素干扰,各国杯赛的次要地位,欧洲联赛的强弱对比以及形式明朗后的弃赛现象,不在本统计之内。)

4、34%、9%、57%的比例,恰好符合甚至高出博彩时候庄家保险的概率55%。但是,庄家精明,我们这些闲家也一样精明。您听说过一个比赛日把所有场次都押一遍的波友吗?如果有这样的家伙,不是疯了就是钱多的烧的。我们下注,一般只针对自己有感觉或者实力对比鲜明的对赛场次。这一点,庄家也是知道的,于是,越是实力对比鲜明的场次,他们就越要下些功夫。这些功夫不是针对一场球下的,而是长时间的。以去年西甲联赛皇马为例子,去年皇马38战22胜12和4负。但是赢盘却只有15个整盘6个半盘,走盘两个,输半盘2个,输盘13个。而皇马所有赢盘的澳门初盘平均水位为0.85,终盘平均水位0.825,我们以均注1A为单位计算,捧定皇马一年下来不过赢1A左右。其实,我们仔细研究就会发现,皇马赢盘集中在联赛初期和结尾阶段,中间有很长一段时间皇马就是不赢盘。大家想一下,那个时候谁也不知道皇马最后的走势是什么样子,即使有人告诉你是上面的结果,你又肯相信吗?于是,长捧的现象几乎不可能出现,或者大家捧到自己输了的时候就离开了,恰好失去了拌回的机会。但是,话说回来,即使你不离开,继续捧,如果皇马就是不回头,哪不是更惨吗?

22场胜利和15+6X0.5个赢盘,这就是庄家利用让球打破比例规律的最好例证。

5、庄家用盘口、让球,打乱了我们对自己对强队的信赖,逼迫我们到实力对比更均衡的对赛中冒险,前面已经说了,在这样的对赛中冒险,我们胜出的可能更小,于是庄家就可以立于不败之地。

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2#
学习中。。。谢谢楼主分享
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3#
新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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4#
谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢 楼主的分享....
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