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[虚拟币交流]
即将到来的比特币崩盘？Peter Brandt警告BTC价格可能下跌75%（转）
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资深大宗商品交易员Peter Brandt表示，比特币（BTC）的价格可能会下跌75%。
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- a8 Z1 D; Y/ s2 @/ [! E; d3 p7 {这位77岁的老人的警告是基于这样的观察，即在过去，每当比特币在其上一个峰值后的30周内未能达到新的历史高点（ATH）时，比特币就会经历重大调整。* S/ R& W$ D: J/ t$ x+ D% Y: \9 F
7 L- @ {3 ~7 v6 ?: l9 \* x" a2 x9 R历史模式是否预示着比特币的潜在衰退？
0 Y# V. k4 A5 a勃兰特评论在万亿美元的加密货币已经挣扎保持近几个月的上升势头。自3月14日注册新的ATH以来，已经过去了30周，当时其价格超过73000美元。1 g+ u4 e6 M+ n* J/ U$ P( ^
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目前，该资产已较峰值下跌17.6%，价格较过去24小时的先前水平小幅下跌0.5%。然而，回归在两周内最为明显，BTC在此期间下跌了7.1%。2 O% D9 {3 ~$ C9 T0 U2 V
; D: e+ j6 Z, w* G虽然一些季度可能会认为这些是微小的波动，但勃兰特的分析指出了一个更大的历史模式，这可能预示着投资者未来会遇到麻烦。
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0 c$ G' R. W/ B# ~根据Factor首席执行官的说法，在之前的周期中，比特币在达到最后一个价格里程碑后未能继续上涨，这通常会导致大幅回调。他表示，目前的停滞可能会导致看跌转向，并表示：“不上涨的市场通常不会上涨。”
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0 v# Q- S) X7 S0 l# y0 Z6 f此外，这位分析师澄清说，他的评估是基于历史模式，而不是个人意见，并指出：“我总是对那些将市场观察与市场意见混为一谈的人感到好笑。”
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然而，勃兰特仍然表示对比特币的长期价值充满信心，说这是他投资组合中最大的可交易资产。9 t% K# e& y5 w. @7 g* T
0 G0 {% r' I8 j加密社区反应
4 P4 E8 G; j. w0 A3 h# Z' p* p正如一位著名人物发表可能被视为有争议的声明时经常发生的那样，这位传奇的图表分析师的评论引发了人们的讨论，许多交易员分享了他们对他的警告的看法。
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一些人猜测，加密货币的ATH可能已经提高过早由发展比特币现货ETF的价格波动，表明外部因素可能正在扭曲通常的价格周期。% y+ l \/ |1 Z: c( X1 [' y
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其他人质疑将之前的周期进行比较的合理性，特别是考虑到今年早些时候发生的比特币减半以及像比特币这样的机构参与者的影响贝莱德，可能改变当前的市场动态。
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