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[lastpost] => 2761572 学“微策略”翻车？比特币没涨，Metaplanet 股价先跌惨 1757003127 天策-瑶娥
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。9 s( V( T0 K# G @+ J- x# G
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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; u7 ~* ?9 }8 b衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
0 A7 _4 p; L' L* b0 Y4 l1 Y( ]美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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& L9 X* Y& D0 Z; N! x `' E @5 ~融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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: z* W; X$ L! B+ Y过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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J) g! Y" q, M. W" k7 o然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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+ ~4 V( w0 @ R$ g长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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$ b$ |' m1 o4 x% v5 L是表示：
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( k5 m, L. k( q# ^这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币7 y, |/ a$ b4 `: L
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。, s2 D2 i3 ~& Z: r9 d* C3 P
) K, P( R4 D+ ]! M) n# F" S. i周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。+ O6 J2 i) T9 o, w h' r
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债" l1 O! H. {* v r, W; ?
: [$ Q# n# i0 H$ L收益率冲高回落。
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。6 u: c7 \0 L* z) k/ B) H! `
' W, t1 w* ~! j周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。' l8 E A0 J" N, G" {
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
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3 ]' H ^, ^* C7 N0 g. D: q* V是的，这正是我们所看到的。"4 m2 E6 \7 K7 m
* F' T! H ]6 T( j3 z/ `% f- G8 J根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去7 T) k$ i c# R6 H
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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: }2 Z4 m0 ]( @" vRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"( K+ ^$ ^7 d, \
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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