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[真人] 德州扑克概率中的一些冷知识
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1、AK vs 对子的最大胜率?# z* B" |! I  V# l1 f% c; c0 h# v
AsKs vs 2c2d = 50.1%:49.9%- N  a" A7 n2 w7 L& H

4 A, |/ q5 g5 L. M, s* l2、两高张 vs 对子的最大胜率?/ I9 s/ F: a+ e+ b/ ^
JsTs vs 2c2d = 54.0%:46.0%$ L0 x# m; q8 a7 y. P
——JsTs成花顺比例最高,不被对子block;同时22被“淹没”的概率最高。6 \; Q& k3 G2 Z* O2 ~" A' \1 K

2 N- j3 T# x' [/ j  Y% w5 ^3、翻牌圈听牌vs成牌outs最多的情况+ T( ]- O' X, u& S) ]4 ^
两高张抽同花顺(两高张花顺双抽),如
  k( S8 M; N0 ^" h6 z8 I2 BKsQs vs Jc8c @JsTs2d = 68.9%:31.1%
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4、转牌圈比牌更大但是河牌除了分池没有胜率的情况4 H: ~! w6 F! [  m' r; x6 @, X
5s6s vs 2s7s @3c3d4c4d = 63.6%:36.4%
3 B0 g: `1 J5 F7 ]. A——这里2567都是 56s的outs,其他无论发什么都双方分池。
( y; G, ^* m+ F- b$ `+ N/ ^7 j——把条件增到更强会更加好玩,5s6s vs 2d7d @3s3h4s4h = 71.6%:28.4%。
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4 V! h1 Y5 Z% t+ ^9 h. s: u% y5、转牌圈 抽牌 vs 成牌outs最多的情况4 ?- s+ l/ o. b8 k5 I
(应该是)花顺双抽公对面vs小对子:
) `2 \* n# }- d* E4 ~1 EKsQs vs 2c2d @JsTsJc3d = 56.8%:43.2%9 d$ v5 M6 T* x9 x
outs有AKQT93,黑桃4-8 = 3+3+4+4+3+3+5=25个outs7 y3 j- f* P2 f) h" d" a6 B
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6、AA vs 67s还是56s胜率最高?5 _) V% v# ~9 q+ O2 K+ e, _
答案是56s。
4 Y9 ~( b. [# v- ^' x6 Z  LAsAh vs 6c7c = 77.0%:23.0%;3 k+ @: ?2 D0 ]+ B% Z% L, p
AsAh vs 6c5c = 76.9%:23.1%;$ J8 U8 m! R8 }
(用pokerstove模拟170万次,为什么是170万次?因为翻后总组合数是1,712,304个)
* U* u' b& y  ^为什么56s胜率会高那么一丁点呢?因为AA输的情况,主要56s或67s成花顺、两对、三条,当56s成花顺的时候,AA基本没有redraw,但是56成两对、三条的时候,AA除了A的outs,还有顺子的outs——56s block掉了1/4 A-5的顺。( ^- p# b; h" f: [
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7、AA vs AA 其中一方赢的概率是多少?8 S+ h2 N5 F2 w0 P- |
答:一方获胜概率是2.2%,分池概率是95.7%。- S9 V, `0 S1 ?/ B# [

. q5 [8 f( A6 ?9 B1 v) m  `) F8、你平均打多少手看到河牌的牌,会拿到一手同花顺(含皇家同花顺)?同花顺遇到金刚的概率是多少?( F# x: Q0 f0 A' l9 A! q/ {% t
答:1)拿到同花顺的概率是0.031%,大约3200手牌会拿到一手。+ @) |+ V0 l. |& ^
按此粗略估算,如果网上9人桌1小时平均60手牌,你大约在满员桌平均6小时会看到一手同花顺。(假设同花顺的手牌强度都能坚持到河牌;另外这里玩家手牌并不是独立事件,但是我们粗略地看成每个玩家拿到同花顺的事件彼此独立)
( t1 `; L( p6 w5 E2)同花顺遇到金刚的概率大约是400万分之一。5 f, d2 U5 v7 R/ H
这里详细的计算见下表,其中同花顺的概率是计算无误的;同花顺遇到金刚的概率有点复杂,估计计算没有大的问题,但是不能完全保证计算做到相互独立完全穷尽,欢迎检查指正(我真是闲得蛋疼去算这么一道高中排列组合题目)。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
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